According to UBS Wealth Management, gold will remain the central precious metal value driver in 2026. Analysts anticipate that the price of the yellow metal will rise to around $5,000 per ounce by the end of the first quarter and maintain this level into the autumn. By the end of 2026, the major bank expects a moderate decline to approximately $4,800 per ounce.
The forecast is based on a continuing bull market: Gold recently traded near $4,500 per ounce and reacted strongly to recent geopolitical tensions, such as the US military operation against Venezuela’s President Maduro. According to experts, political or financial shocks – such as those surrounding the US midterm elections – could even temporarily drive the price towards $5,400.
UBS points to a combination of structural and short-term factors: sustained purchases by central banks, high and growing government deficits, falling real US interest rates, and overall increased geopolitical uncertainty.
Why UBS is so positive about gold in 2026
For UBS, gold is part of a broader commodity boom. Experts expect commodities to play a greater role in portfolios in 2026, as supply-demand imbalances and the energy transition support several segments. Within this asset class, gold holds a special role as a diversification component in UBS’s assessment.
According to UBS, central banks in particular will remain an important driver on the demand side. Many countries are continuing to expand their gold reserves to reduce currency risks and make their balance sheets more robust against geopolitical tensions. At the same time, real yields – i.e., interest rates after inflation – remain low, which limits the opportunity costs of holding gold.
Added to this is the fiscal factor: growing government deficits, particularly in the US, are fueling concerns about long-term currency devaluation. In this environment, gold is seen by many market participants as a hedge against currency and debt risks.
UBS analysts also emphasize that gold – despite its strong performance – should primarily be seen as a strategic diversifier. In phases of increased uncertainty or high inflation, a commodity mix can generally help make portfolios more resilient to shocks; in earlier assessments, the bank cited a rough guideline of allocating up to 5% to a broadly diversified commodity index.
Commodity markets on the rise: copper, aluminum, and oil in focus
Although gold is clearly the focus of the current UBS forecast, the bank also points to opportunities in other commodities. Copper and aluminum are expected to face further supply bottlenecks, as global electrification, the expansion of power grids, and the energy transition drive demand. Structurally tight supply, long lead times for new mines, and regulatory hurdles could further dampen supply.
For the oil market, UBS expects a noticeable recovery only in the second half of 2026. According to analysts, the current oversupply should decline if demand growth continues and production outside of OPEC+ increases more slowly. Limited spare capacity at OPEC+ is cited as another factor that could cushion the oil price downside.
The bank also sees potential in the agricultural sector, particularly against the backdrop of extreme weather events and structural demand for biofuels and feedstuffs. Overall, the analysts paint a picture in which several commodity segments are simultaneously supported by long-term trends – with gold remaining the central “security component.”
Outlook 2026: Opportunities for gold, but also high volatility
Despite the optimistic price targets of up to $5,000 for gold, UBS emphasizes that commodities, and precious metals in particular, can be subject to considerable price fluctuations. Price phases in which geopolitical events, inflation data, or interest rate expectations dominate in the short term can trigger strong upward and downward spikes.
The bank sees several potential catalysts for gold in 2026:
- possible further interest rate cuts in the US,
- continued or increasing central bank purchases,
- uncertainty surrounding US domestic policy and the budget situation,
- as well as a generally fragile geopolitical environment.
At the same time, an unexpectedly sharp rise in real interest rates, a calming of political tensions, or profit-taking after the strong run could put pressure on the price of gold in phases.
UBS remains of the opinion that gold remains a “valuable portfolio diversifier” in an environment of high debt, low real interest rates, and latent crisis risks – and that 2026 could be another year in which the metal plays a central role in the global commodity and investment mix.
