China introduced a new export system for silver on January 1, 2026. It represents significantly more than just a new trade regulation, as its effect is that of a strategic weapon that can be used with devastating effect in the ongoing trade war with the West. It is therefore appropriate to say that the silver market after January 1, 2026, is a completely different one than it was before.
The starting point for the new regulation is that silver in China, similar to the USA and Europe, is now classified not only as an ordinary raw material but as a strategic metal. The open quotas that existed until December 31, 2025, for silver refined in China are therefore history.
Until the end of last year, even smaller suppliers from the Middle Kingdom were allowed to export their manufactured semi-finished silver products abroad without a permit; now, an export permit from the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing is required. However, only those suppliers who produce more than 80 tons of refined silver per year may apply for this.
Large and state-affiliated instead of small and flexible
The circle of eligible Chinese companies is significantly reduced by this restriction, as smaller and medium-sized refineries are now effectively excluded from silver exports due to the new regulations. Only the largest of the large remain, i.e., essentially the state-owned companies, which are characterized not only by their size but also by a special proximity to the state and party leadership.
For the years 2026 and 2027, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has only approved 44 companies for export, which means a drastic reduction in market participants. The consequences of this measure are considerable. Experts estimate that Chinese silver exports abroad will fall by around 30 to 50 percent this year compared to 2025.
The official Chinese production figures for the past year are not yet available, but it is estimated that a total of around 21,000 tons of refined silver were produced in the Middle Kingdom. Of this silver, around 4,000 tons were exported abroad. Western companies are therefore now forced to procure up to 2,000 tons of silver from other sources.
The West will soon feel the sharpness of this sword
The government justifies this measure with “industrial security” and “resource security.” However, the reality is much more complex and contains, above all, a strategic component that is deliberately concealed by both terms. The fact is that China has recognized how important silver is for its industrial ambitions in the areas of solar industry, battery technology, semiconductors, and military technology.
As with rare earths, the Chinese leadership has recognized that it makes a lot of sense for China to first dominate the silver market, then restrict access, and finally dictate prices. After rare earths, gallium, and antimony, silver is now the next market in which this strategy is being applied with full force.
The advantages of this strategy are obvious. China’s industry receives preferential access to scarce and important raw materials, and the government in Beijing simultaneously holds an important trump card in its negotiations with the West. This new negotiating power will in all likelihood soon be used in negotiations with the West.
