Tin remains a strategically important raw material – and a tight market segment – from the perspective of Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI. In their latest market report, BMI analysts raised the tin price forecast for 2026 from the previous USD 32,000 to USD 35,000 per tonne. This is attributed to ongoing supply disruptions coupled with stable demand from the semiconductor industry.
At the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month contracts were around USD 36,800 per tonne in mid-November. BMI expects that the tin price will continue to be supported by the combination of tight supply and robust industrial demand.
Tin Supply: Indonesia and Myanmar as Key Regions
In the global tin market, supply from a few countries plays a central role. Indonesia is dominant, having been the most important exporter for years. Currently, delays in approving annual work permits are affecting production and exports there. In the past, the flow of metal from the Southeast Asian state had repeatedly stalled when the government and authorities tightened mining and export regulations.
Additionally, Myanmar is in focus. The tin concentrate supply chain depends not only on Indonesian policy but also on decisions by the de facto authorities in Wa State in northern Myanmar. The International Tin Association announced in July that deliveries from the region were expected to resume after several operators of the large Man Maw tin mine had received three-year licenses and a controlled restart was underway.
However, at the time of BMI’s report in late November, no verifiable progress on actual export volumes was available, leading analysts to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Myanmar is the world’s third-largest tin producer after China and Indonesia, and according to USGS data, it possesses approximately 700,000 tonnes of tin reserves – about 15% of global reserves. Accordingly, the market reacts sensitively to any news from the country.
Limited Project Pipeline Exacerbates the Tin Market
In addition to political and regulatory risks in producing countries, BMI points to structural bottlenecks in the project pipeline. Globally, few new tin mines are under development, which increasingly tightens the market for tin concentrate. The consequence: smelters compete more intensely for available material, and the growth of refined production remains limited.
The situation in China also contributes to the tight supply side. According to analysts, tin production at smelters there is limited by a lack of concentrates. At the same time, economic activity in the People’s Republic has picked up against the backdrop of more relaxed trade conflicts – an environment that increases the demand for tin in industrial applications.
BMI therefore expects that the tight supply of concentrate will remain a significant price driver in the coming years. A significant expansion of processed tin production is difficult under these conditions.
Tin Demand: Semiconductors, E-mobility, and Solar as Growth Drivers
On the demand side, tin is significantly shaped by the electronics industry. The metal is a central component of solders in circuit boards and semiconductor components. Fitch/BMI expects that global tin consumption will continue to increase, primarily driven by electronics, e-mobility, and renewable energies.
Electric and hybrid vehicles increasingly contain more electronic components, control units, and sensor technology – and thus indirectly more tin. The expansion of photovoltaic systems also plays a role: In solar cells and modules, tin is used, among other things, in the area of contacts.
Against this backdrop, BMI classifies tin as a “raw material of the future” component, whose use in strategic technologies continues to grow. In combination with the tight supply situation, this, from the analysts’ perspective, points to a structurally tightening market.
Outlook: Tin Market Heading for Deficit
Overall, BMI expects that the tin market will continue to tighten in the coming years. Analysts anticipate a deficit, as the limited supply from Indonesia, Myanmar, and a thin project pipeline is unlikely to keep pace with rising industrial demand.
While short-term fluctuations are to be expected, current forecasts suggest that tin prices could remain at elevated levels. For market participants monitoring the tin sector – from mine operators to industrial consumers in the electronics, automotive, and solar industries – developments in producing countries and the realization of new projects thus remain a central factor for price formation in 2026 and beyond.
