The Swiss major bank UBS expects the copper price to continue rising in the coming years. In a recent analysis, the institution points to a combination of tighter supply due to production disruptions and robust structural demand from electrification and investments in clean energy. Copper thus remains in focus as a key raw material for the energy transition and infrastructure.
Copper Market: Supply-Side Bottlenecks
For March 2026, UBS raises its copper forecast to $11,500 per tonne, and for June and September 2026 to $12,000 and $12,500 respectively. A new target of $13,000 per tonne for December 2026 has also been introduced. In parallel, the expected supply deficits are significantly adjusted upwards: Instead of a shortfall of 53,000 tonnes in 2025, the bank now calculates with approximately 230,000 tonnes, and for 2026 with about 407,000 tonnes.
UBS cites disruptions in mine production as central causes. These include problems at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia, a sluggish recovery in production in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru. According to analysts, these factors underscore structural supply constraints in the copper market, which are expected to persist until 2026 and further pressure inventories.
Copper Demand Drives Long-Term Trend
On the demand side, UBS expects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% each in 2025 and 2026. Drivers include the expansion of electromobility, investments in renewable energies, grid expansion, and the data center boom. Copper is needed in large quantities in electric vehicles, high-voltage lines, wind and solar power plants, and data infrastructure, and is therefore considered a key industrial material for decarbonization.
At the same time, the bank lowers its forecasts for refined copper production growth to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. Reasons include declining ore grades in existing mines and operational challenges that hinder the expansion of copper production.
Against this backdrop, UBS assumes that periods of weaker copper prices are likely to be short-lived. Analysts see a persistently tight copper market, which points to tight supply and high price sensitivity until at least 2026, thus continuing to shape the outlook for copper as a raw material.
