It has now become known in the West that raw materials do not just come from the port, but, like the electricity that comes from the socket, have a certain history. One consequence of this awakening is that international competition for critical minerals has intensified significantly in recent years.
Since cobalt, nickel, copper, silver, and manganese, to name just a few important critical metals, are not available in unlimited quantities, the struggle for them has long since become a strategic battleground, and this fight is not just about the raw materials themselves, but about nothing more and nothing less than the technological leadership of the major powers.
However, the starting position could hardly be more unfavorable for the West, as China has controlled up to 90 percent of the processing capacities for rare earths since the 1990s, making refining a geopolitical bottleneck. The export controls imposed on Japan in 2010 and the events of last spring, when China also threatened to cut off the USA and Europe from their supply of rare earths, show the influence China already has.
China’s current leadership role has cost it a lot
Further export controls for graphite, tungsten, and antimony were added in 2024, and since the beginning of 2026, the export of silver from the Middle Kingdom has also been subject to stricter export regulations. However, China’s current position of power has not simply fallen into its lap. It has systematically worked towards it and spent a lot of money in recent years to get into its current position.
For over two decades, state-supported corporations and banks have invested heavily to dominate the mining, refining, and logistics of critical minerals worldwide. We are now experiencing the consequence of this long-term vision. Today, China refines approximately 73 percent of the world’s cobalt, 68 percent of nickel, 59 percent of lithium, and 40 percent of copper.
The political leadership in Beijing not only holds immense influence over the industry in its own country, but it also indirectly controls the development of downstream industries in other countries, from electric vehicles to advanced weapons, through possible export restrictions.
In Africa and Central Asia, Chinese companies have not only secured preferential access to ores through long-term off-take agreements, infrastructure-for-resources deals, and equity investments. There is now also considerable political influence, which, for example, in West African states such as Mali, Niger, or Burkina Faso, can easily lead to Western companies no longer gaining access to new raw material projects or even losing their own projects in these countries because the governments revoke the licenses granted and then transfer them to Chinese companies.
The West’s reaction is late, but it is coming
The West is now painfully aware of its precarious position. The years of carefree complacency are over. There is no longer just a warning that China could control too many critical raw materials, but efforts are being made to do the same as the Chinese and also secure access to good projects in Africa and South America. There are also some administrative changes taking place.
For example, the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act and the agreement between the EU and the USA on critical minerals aim to diversify supply, streamline lengthy approval procedures, and promote production domestically or within friendly states. To achieve this and gain more independence from China, new funding is being provided, tax incentives are being given, and approval procedures are being accelerated.
The European Union is providing an estimated 22.5 billion euros to bring 47 raw material projects, classified as “strategic,” into production in the coming years. In the USA, the government under Donald Trump is taking the same approach. Here, too, projects are now being approved more quickly, and the Department of Defense is investing a lot of money to ensure the supply of antimony and rare earths to US armaments companies.
Time is of the essence, as demand is high and continues to rise
However, the intensifying geopolitical competition for finite mineral resources is taking place at a time characterized by rising demand. The high demand and the newly ignited geopolitical struggle are thus simultaneously influencing pricing, which should lead to further price increases in the medium to long term.
The International Energy Agency now assumes that the market for minerals important for the energy transition will double in the next five years. A tripling of today’s demand is even expected for lithium. S&P Global warns that copper demand could be around 50 percent higher by 2040 compared to today’s levels.
From the mining industry’s point of view, 2040 is not far away, because it already takes 15 years to put a small or medium-sized mine into operation today. For larger projects, the time required increases slightly to 20 to 25 years. Investors who want to profit from this trend are therefore already taking an intensive look at the possible producers of tomorrow.
In the copper sector, American West Metals, Brixton Metals, Algo Grande Copper, Prismo Metals, or MAX Resource are good options. Those who want to play the silver shortage invest in First Mining Gold, Gold Terra Resource, Norsemont Mining or Cerro de Pasco Resources. While all those investors who want to act somewhat more conservatively and therefore prefer to concentrate on the producers or companies close to production still find attractive opportunities at Silver Tiger Metals despite the increased price levels. And last but not least, Ucore Rare Metals with its technology for separating rare earth materials is well on its way to directly contributing to a secure, Western supply chain!
