The gold market has been marked by new record highs for months – and now one of the largest US banks is pushing the targets even further up. Bank of America (BofA) has raised its short-term price target for gold to $6,000 per ounce. According to media reports, this is – so far – the most aggressive forecast from a major institution for the yellow metal. While investors and analysts in many places are initially looking at the psychologically important $5,000 threshold, BofA is already focusing on the next stage.
The reasoning refers to historical patterns of past bull market phases: In four bull markets, gold rose by an average of around 300% within 43 months – a benchmark that, according to its calculations, suggests a price of $6,000 by spring. That would lift gold more than 20% above current record levels.
Gold and the $6,000 mark: Historical comparisons as a line of argument
The core message is that historical developments do not provide a guarantee, but can serve as a guide. The reference to average price increases in previous gold bull market phases is intended to illustrate that, from the bank’s perspective, the recent rally does not necessarily have to be “exhausted” just because new highs have been reached. On the contrary, the bank is explicitly positioning its forecast “before” a phase in which the market discusses the $5,000 mark as a new reference.
At the same time, Bank of America had already emphasized at the beginning of January that, from the bank’s perspective, gold could play a central role in portfolios in 2026. In their assessment, the analysts highlight two aspects in particular: firstly, tightening market conditions and, secondly, a high sensitivity of corporate profits in the sector to the gold price. In BofA’s argumentation, gold is therefore not only a hedging instrument, but also a metal whose price movements can trigger significant effects along the value chain.
Bank of America: Declining production, rising costs, higher profitability
A key component of the BofA thesis is supply and cost trends. It is expected that the 13 major North American gold producers will produce a total of 19.2 million ounces in 2026. This would correspond to a decrease of 2% compared to 2025. At the same time, the major bank expresses doubts that many market estimates of the production volume are realistic – in its view, they could be too optimistic.
On the cost side, Bank of America calculates an increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of 3% to around $1,600 per ounce. This value is also slightly above the market consensus. In combination with the increased gold price environment, the US bank nevertheless expects a noticeable improvement in the earnings situation for producers: The EBITDA of the sector is expected to increase by 41% to around $65 billion in 2026.
In the same classification, BofA also mentions average values for precious metals: Gold is expected to average $4,538 per ounce (real) in 2026. At the same time, the bank also expects higher prices for silver, platinum and palladium – an assessment that points to an overall constructive picture for precious metals, without BofA narrowing this down exclusively to gold.
Demand, portfolios and central banks: Who is not yet mapping the gold market
In addition to supply and costs, Bank of America focuses on the demand side – in particular the question of who is already positioned in the gold market and who has so far remained on the sidelines. It argues that gold bull market phases typically only reach their peak when the factors that triggered the rally subside – not just because the price has risen sharply. At the same time, it describes the market as “overbought” but still “underinvested”: In its view, there is still room for manoeuvre because certain investor groups have not yet taken gold into account to a relevant extent.
Investment demand – especially among retail investors – has increased significantly in recent months, it continues. For 2025, inflows into gold-backed ETFs are estimated to be at their highest level since 2020. At the same time, Widmer refers to a group that has largely ignored the gold market to date: Professional investors in the high-net-worth segment hold an average of only around 0.5% of their assets in gold, although the metal accounts for around 4% of the entire financial market.
Central banks also play a central role in BofA’s argumentation. The analysts expect central banks to continue buying gold, even after official reserves reach new milestones in 2025. In its model, central banks have now increased their gold holdings beyond their holdings of US government bonds; gold corresponds to an average of around 15% of total central bank reserves. At the same time, the experts’ model calculation comes to the conclusion that the reserves would be “fully optimized” with a gold ratio of around 30% – an indication of how much demand in the official sector could still shift according to this logic.
The US monetary policy is also mentioned as a possible trigger for further movements. The BofA model shows that gold has risen by an average of 13% in easing cycles – when inflation is above 2%. The crucial factor here is not that there are interest rate cuts at every meeting, but that the direction of interest rates is turning downwards.
Overall, Bank of America paints a scenario in which gold is supported not only by short-term headlines, but also by structural factors: a decline in supply and cost inflation on the producer side, as well as investment and central bank demand, which the bank believes could expand further.
