While gold and silver continue to benefit from geopolitics and safe-haven demand, tungsten is experiencing its own supercycle in 2026. Prices for tungsten concentrates, APT, and powder have multiplied by up to 110 percent since the beginning of the year and are now testing record highs—driven by Chinese quotas, declining ore grades, and exploding high-tech demand.
Price Recovery Becomes a Rally: +500% in One Year
Tungsten prices have staged a breathtaking turnaround over the last 12 months. Concentrates are currently trading at around 22,000–24,000 USD/MTU (Metric Ton Unit (MTU), where 1 MTU = 10 kg of tungsten trioxide), APT is breaking the 450 USD mark, and powder prices are climbing to 55,000 USD/t—an increase of over 500 percent since the 2024 lows. Analysts are referring to the “rising-easily, falling-hardly” phenomenon: the metal climbs effortlessly but hardly retreats, as the supply gap has become structural.
As the global market leader (80 percent of production), China cut quotas by 6.5 percent in 2025, tightened export contingencies, and raised recycling quotas—while ore grades in mines are simultaneously declining. CICC forecasts a global deficit of 20,000 MTU by 2028, as demand explodes from defense, semiconductors, EV batteries, and AI data centers.
Geopolitics Intensifies Pressure: Iran Conflict as a Catalyst
The escalation in the Middle East—US/Israeli airstrikes against Iran—supports not only gold but also tungsten as a “NATO metal.” As a critical raw material for tank barrels, missiles, and high-performance tools, tungsten benefits directly from defense spending. Reports from March 1 indicate further price increases in Shanghai, while Western governments bolster their strategic reserves.
In the US, the Department of Defense classifies tungsten as a “critical defense material”; Europe is pushing for diversification away from Beijing. Forecasts see the market reaching 177 kilotons by 2031 at a 4.65 percent CAGR—yet the deficit remains.
Western Response: Almonty, Pure Tungsten, and Sangdong as Gamechangers
It is not just demand, but also supply gaps that make tungsten a perennial favorite in 2026. Almonty Industries is ramping up the Sangdong mine (South Korea): Phase 1 is already in production, and Phase 2 aims for over 460,000 MTU/year—the largest tungsten project outside of China. Simultaneously, Almonty plans the US launch of “Gentung Browns Lake” in the second half of 2026: the first commercial US tungsten mine in decades, funded with 219 million USD.
American Tungsten is simultaneously strengthening its US portfolio through investments such as Viking Mines. Among the promising high-grade projects, Pure Tungsten is positioning itself as a potential global producer to strengthen Western supply security.
| Tungsten Price Development (USD/MTU, as of March 2026) | 2024 Low | 2025 Average | March 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concentrate (62.5% WO3) | 9.000 | 16.000 | 23.500 |
| APT (88.5% WO3) | 220 | 320 | 450 |
| Powder | 28.000 | 42.000 | 55.000 |
Outlook: Supercycle with Extension Potential
For 2026, the risk-reward profile for tungsten remains attractive: structural scarcity meets a tech and defense boom. Should Chinese exports continue to decline or geopolitical risks escalate, prices could test 30,000 USD/MTU for concentrates. At the same time, recycling competition is growing, and a strong US dollar could exert pressure.
GOLDINVEST observes: Tungsten is establishing itself as a critical counterpart to gold—industrially, geopolitically, and cyclically. Investors are watching projects like Almonty and Pure Tungsten, while the market awaits Beijing’s next quota and US mine updates. Real-time developments: Stay tuned.
