The silver market has started 2026 with extraordinary momentum. Following the strongest annual increase since 1979, silver initially continued its rally in January, hitting several record highs. For the first time, the psychologically important mark of $100 per ounce was exceeded. Subsequently, the gold-to-silver ratio fell below 50—a level last seen in 2012. This was followed by a sharp correction to below $80, but the price has recently shown resilience and, according to observers, has been able to establish a technical support zone.
The outlook recently published by The Silver Institute paints a picture for 2026 shaped by two forces: high volatility and short-term price fluctuations on one hand, and structurally tight physical markets and a further supply deficit on the other. The forecasts are based on an analysis by Metals Focus, which also produces the “World Silver Survey 2026” annual report. Its publication is scheduled for April 15.
Silver 2026: Price Movements Remain High, 2025 Drivers Continue to Have an Impact
Analysts point out that the key factors that supported silver back in 2025 remain present so far in 2026. Specifically mentioned are tight physical availability in London, a volatile geopolitical environment, uncertainty over US policy, and questions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve. Additionally, a fundamentally supportive supply and demand foundation is emphasized: for 2026, the report expects a sixth consecutive year in which total demand exceeds total supply.
This starting position helps explain why silver, although moving significantly below its January highs following the setback, did not enter a permanent downward trend. The report speaks of “resilience” while also pointing to ongoing bottlenecks that could amplify price fluctuations—for example, in connection with tariffs, high investment activity, and a deficit that has accompanied the market since 2021.
Demand: Investment Expected to Increase, Industry and Jewelry Weaker
For 2026, the report expects little overall change in global silver demand. The reason: growth in physical investment—particularly in bars and coins—is likely to largely offset declines in other segments.
However, industrial fabrication is seen as declining for 2026: down 2% to around 650 million ounces—a four-year low. Photovoltaics is once again considered a central burdening factor. Although global solar installations are expected to continue rising, “thrifting” (more economical use) and partial substitution of silver in components are causing the PV industry’s silver demand to fall. At the same time, the report identifies structural growth areas that can partially cushion this weakness: the expansion of data centers, applications related to Artificial Intelligence, and the automotive industry are expected to support silver consumption in several industrial applications.
Jewelry and silverware are expected to be significantly weaker. Jewelry demand is projected to decline for the second consecutive year in 2026, by more than 9% to 178 million ounces—the lowest level since 2020. High prices are cited as the main reason, with India highlighted in particular as a price-sensitive market. According to the report, China is an exception: demand there could rise slightly, partly due to product innovations and the increasing popularity of gold-plated silver jewelry. For silverware, an even sharper decline of around 17% is expected—also with a focus on India.
In contrast, physical investment demand is described as a clear counterpoint: it is expected to rise by 20% to 227 million ounces, reaching a three-year high. After three years of decline, Western demand in particular could recover, while India is also expected to build on the already strong figures from the previous year.
Supply and Deficit: Higher Mine and Recycling Volumes, but Still Not Enough
On the supply side, the report anticipates moderate growth for 2026: total silver supply is expected to increase by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces—a ten-year high. The growth comes from two sources: mine production and recycling.
Mine production is expected to rise by 1% to 820 million ounces. The drivers are said to be higher output from existing operations as well as new or recently commissioned projects. Several regional impulses are mentioned: in Mexico, growth is expected to come primarily from primary silver mines; in China, higher output is expected from China Gold International’s Jiama polymetallic mine, partly due to ongoing plant expansions. Increases in Canada are seen at Keno Hill (Hecla Mining Company) and New Afton by New Gold Inc., which according to the report is in the process of being acquired by Coeur Mining. In Morocco, the ramped-up production at Zgounder by Aya Gold & Silver is expected to contribute. For Peru, on the other hand, lower volumes at Cerro Lindo (Nexa Resources) and Tambomayo (Buenaventura) are cited as headwinds.
Silver is also expected to increase as a by-product from gold mines in 2026. The report cites examples of expected increases at Pueblo Viejo by Barrick Mining Corporation, Salares Norte by Gold Fields, and Nezhda by Polymetal International. At the same time, it is noted that production from base metal operations could decline slightly—and that weak zinc and lead prices pose risks to the stability of such operations.
In terms of recycling, the report expects a noticeable jump: up 7%, which would bring the recycling volume back above 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012. Silverware in particular could increase as a source of scrap, as consumers sell more when prices are high.
Despite this expansion in supply, the conclusion remains clear: the silver market is expected to be undersupplied again in 2026, with a deficit of 67 million ounces. As in previous years, the balance will be achieved through the release of bars from above-ground stocks, which places additional strain on the already tight physical market.
Regarding the investment section, the report cites further key figures: as of February 9, 2026, the price of silver had already risen by 11% in the current year. In addition, coin and bar purchases have recently picked up; global ETP holdings are estimated at around 1.31 billion ounces. For the coming months, an environment is described that can fundamentally support precious metals—while at the same time continuing to see high volatility.
