The gold market has performed strongly in 2025: The price of the yellow metal has stabilized above $3,600 per ounce, gold is among the strongest asset classes with a gain of almost 40%, and for the first time, the mining sector is now noticeably following suit. For example, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) recently hit a record high, surpassing its previous peak from the bull market 14 years ago. Nevertheless, analysts at Bank of America (BofA) still see investor demand relative to the global equity universe remaining below previous highs.
According to BofA calculations, the total market capitalization of the global gold sector now stands at just over $550 billion — more than triple its 2022 cycle low ($170 billion) and more than eight times its 2016 low ($70 billion). Notably, the sector’s valuation has almost doubled compared to its peaks in 2020 ($331 billion) and 2011 ($334 billion). At the same time, gold stocks still represent only about 0.39% of global equity market capitalization — similar to five years ago, but clearly below the 2011 high of 0.71%. Should the current cycle continue, analysts believe a return to 0.71% is possible; with an unchanged global market capitalization, this would correspond to approximately $990 billion.
Valuation Multiples in the Gold Sector with Room for Upside
Despite capital inflows, valuation multiples are still below previous highs. Based on the last twelve months, the sector trades at an EV/EBITDA of 11.0x (peak 15.4 in 2020) and the price-to-book ratio is 1.88 (vs. 2.27 in 2020 and 2.19 in 2011). Adjustments to the spot gold price raise the current NTM EV/EBITDA to 11.7 and the P/NAV to 1.39 — metrics that, from BofA’s perspective, signal further expansion potential if the tailwinds continue.
Gold despite Record Prices with further Upside Potential
The positive sector outlook is supported by the expectation of persistently robust commodity prices. Even after the jump to record levels of over $3,600 per ounce, commodity analysts see further upside potential. For the second quarter of 2026, BofA forecasts an average gold price of approximately $4,000 per ounce. Tailwinds are coming from monetary policy: The Federal Reserve only yesterday initiated a new easing cycle. Interest rate cuts in an environment of persistently high inflation would be fertile ground for a weaker US dollar — an environment that historically supports the price of gold.
Gold has long since completed its turnaround, and now the mining sector is following suit. While market breadth and capital inflows are increasing, multiples are still clearly below the highs of previous cycles. Those who believe in a continuation of the upturn will still find valuation arguments in the sector — despite new highs in leading indices like the GDX.
