The New York-based analysis firm CPM Group believes that the gold market will remain in bull mode in the long term. In light of the current political, economic, financial, and social tensions, CPM sees the underlying conditions for gold clearly on the side of bear markets in the financial markets – and bull markets in precious metals. The experts say that 2025 was already an exceptional year for gold and other precious metals, and 2026 could continue this trend in an even more volatile form.
While gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are reaching new record levels, the focus in the market is increasingly shifting away from classic fundamentals towards political events, geopolitical risks, and the reaction of unsettled investors.
Gold in the Tension Between Data Overload and Geopolitical Risks
The CPM Group sees the next few months as particularly crucial for the price of gold. After the temporary standstill caused by the “shutdown” in autumn 2025, the US government is catching up on a wealth of economic and financial data. These figures will cover large parts of the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and provide initial indications for the first quarter of 2026.
CPM expects that some of this data could have an “economically hostile” effect – for example, indicating a weaker economy, rising risks, or a problematic budget situation. Such signals would traditionally increase the demand for gold as a hedging instrument and provide additional support for the gold price.
At the same time, a number of unresolved political conflicts are exacerbating the situation: tensions in the US’s relations with Europe, Canada, Mexico, and China, uncertainties in trade policy, and a generally higher perception of geopolitical risk. From the CPM Group’s perspective, these are key reasons why the price of gold could remain strong in the first quarter of 2026 and then move into a sideways phase.
The course of the gold market in 2025 already showed a similar pattern: a significant increase from January to March, a consolidation from April to July, and a renewed run to new highs from the end of August. Christian classifies the currently high gold prices as part of a longer-term trend characterized by “conditions in the world” that will not fundamentally improve in the short term.
New Investor Types Are Changing the Dynamics in the Gold Market
In addition to the classic gold investors, new players are increasingly appearing on the scene. CPM describes a growing group of short-term market participants who have previously been less prominent as typical precious metal investors. These are often momentum traders and speculative investors who are increasingly trading not only gold and silver, but also platinum, palladium, copper, and aluminum.
It is worth noting that many of these investors have begun to view physical gold and silver as instruments for wealth preservation. Gold no longer serves them merely as a short-term trade, but as a stable building block to hedge against currency and systemic risks – at the same time, however, they continue to expect price gains.
This combination of “wealth protection and speculative capital is creating a new dynamic in the gold market, according to the CPM Group. As long as the price of gold rises or is in an upward phase, this inflow of capital can reinforce the trend. However, if there are longer sideways phases or more significant setbacks, there is a risk that the same players will quickly reduce their positions again – with correspondingly strong counter-movements in the price of gold.
Despite this potential volatility, Christian and the CPM Group assume that the fundamental framework conditions – political uncertainty, fragile geopolitical relations, high levels of debt, and growing skepticism towards traditional financial investments – will keep interest in gold high in 2026.
Platinum and Palladium: Historical Parallels and Current Investment Demand
In addition to gold, CPM Group is also focusing on platinum and palladium. Both metals have a checkered price history – and, from the analysis firm’s perspective, offer interesting parallels to today.
Christian recalls the years 2001 to 2007, in which the price of platinum rose continuously until a severe power outage in South Africa in early 2008 massively disrupted the production of platinum, palladium, and rhodium. As a result, the price of platinum initially jumped to around US$2,300 per ounce, only to plummet to around US$800 in the wake of the global financial crisis and an abrupt slump in automotive demand.
Many automobile manufacturers had previously secured high inventory levels after the supply problems in South Africa in order to ensure supply. When demand for vehicles then declined in the wake of the crisis, they were left sitting on expensive inventories – a combination that put additional pressure on prices. Rhodium also showed similar movements at the time, with individual market participants able to switch from selling at US$10,000 per ounce to buying back at US$1,000 per ounce within a quarter.
Today, according to Christian, the price of platinum is again significantly above the levels of early 2008 – this time, however, driven primarily by investment demand rather than short-term supply shocks. The picture has developed somewhat differently for palladium: Although the market reacted strongly in 2021 and 2022 to possible failures of Russian supplies in connection with the Ukraine war, the feared embargoes and massive interruptions did not materialize. As a result, the price of palladium fell from its record levels and has only recovered significantly in the course of the past year, without reaching its former highs again.
For gold investors, these examples from the platinum and palladium market provide two key lessons: Firstly, physical supply bottlenecks and geopolitical risks can trigger extreme price movements in the short term. Secondly, it is becoming clear that investment flows – driven by fear, greed, or hedging interests – are increasingly taking on the dominant role in price formation.
Gold Remains at the Center of an Uncertainty-Driven Precious Metal Cycle
From the CPM Group’s perspective, gold will continue to be at the center of a structural precious metal cycle in 2026, driven by political tensions, economic risks, and the search for wealth protection. While classic fundamentals such as mine production and jewelry demand are fading into the background, macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and the behavior of new investor groups are increasingly determining the direction.
In the short term, the CPM Group expects a strong gold price in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a possible phase of consolidation. In the long term, however, the analysis firm continues to see an environment in which gold – along with other precious metals – plays a central role as a hedging and diversification instrument.
