According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the gold price is currently receiving noticeable tailwind from the geopolitical environment. After a bumpy start to 2026, the precious metal quickly worked its way back into its overarching upward trend. In its current “Weekly Markets Monitor,” the WGC points out that gold has already marked three new all-time highs in the first two weeks of the new year – despite typical burdens at the turn of the year such as tax-driven sales, portfolio reallocations, and the usual volatility in the precious metals sector.
From the analysts’ point of view, it is crucial that geopolitical price peaks, which used to be only short-lived, now occur more frequently. Recurring phases of tension would increasingly “price in” a higher risk premium in the market – an environment that structurally supports the gold price. In addition, the news of an indictment by the Trump administration against the US Federal Reserve in the current week provided a further impetus and drove the spot price of gold up to $4,600 per ounce.
Gold price benefits from risk premiums and political tailwinds
The WGC describes the current situation as a mixture of political uncertainty and markets that are more sensitive to recurring disruptive factors. While short-term outliers often subsided quickly in the past, the more frequent geopolitical tensions now leave more lasting traces in the price structure. The gold price benefits precisely from this, as the “yellow metal” is traditionally in greater demand in phases of increased uncertainty.
From the WGC analysts’ point of view, it is noteworthy that gold has survived the turn of the year effect – i.e. profit-taking, tax-related “tax loss selling” and rebalancing – comparatively well. The market thus sent a signal early in the year that the overarching trend direction is still intact. The increase to $4,600 is also explicitly placed in a context in which political news plays a stronger role in the short term than classic, purely fundamental factors.
World Gold Council: Technical mark for “extremely overbought” is only at $4,770
In addition to the news flow, the World Gold Council focuses on the chart image in its weekly report. According to the analysts, the gold price is not yet considered “extremely overbought” from a technical point of view despite the recent records, as long as it remains below $4,770 per ounce. They derive this mark from a pattern that formed in the fourth quarter. Although the WGC recognizes signs of fatigue and diverging momentum signals, the market has so far only “slightly” retreated and then reached new highs again.
As an important short-term orientation, the analysts cite the rising exponential, moving 13-day average line, which is currently located at $4,447. They interpret the fact that the gold price has held this level as confirmation that the recent consolidation may have been more of a pause within the core upward trend. On the upside, they see the area around $4,600 as the next resistance. They also refer to another key figure: the upper end of what they describe as “typical” overbought extremes – 25% above the 200-day average – is just below at $4,585.
At the same time, the WGC warns that an increased risk of setbacks cannot be ruled out, especially in the area around $4,600. However, the positioning in the market is not yet at an extreme level. The resistance derived from a triangle pattern from October/December 2025 is still seen higher at $4,770. On the downside, a break of the support at $4,447 – and subsequently at $4,408 – would weaken the immediate upward inclination. The WGC locates further support at $4,345 and in a zone between $4,275 and $4,265.
