According to BNP Paribas, the gold market remains on track despite recent turbulence—currently, the battle for the USD 5,000 per ounce mark is underway. The bank’s commodity strategists even consider it possible for gold to rise to USD 6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, supported by persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
At the same time, analysts expect the ratio of gold to silver to shift further in favor of the yellow metal, as they explained to Bloomberg Television.
The background: From the perspective of many market participants, gold continues to be viewed as a hedge against uncertainty. While silver also plays a role, it often reacts more strongly to mood swings and short-term demand impulses. The experts state that gold functions as “risk protection” in a way that silver does not offer in the same form. This is precisely what could provide further room for decoupling, despite the movement that has already occurred.
Gold Remains in Focus – Also Due to Central Banks and ETFs
In addition to the general environment, BNP Paribas points primarily to two sources of demand that they believe stabilize the gold price: central bank purchases and inflows into gold-backed ETFs. On the official side, Poland is explicitly mentioned: the country led the list of the largest buyers last year and announced last month that it intended to acquire a further 150 tonnes of gold. Such steps are seen by the market as a signal that state actors continue to view gold as a strategic reserve component.
Tailwinds are also coming from China, according to the French bank: the central bank there expanded its gold purchases in January for the 15th consecutive month. Taken together, this underscores that demand from the “official sector” remains present not just selectively, but over a longer period of time—a factor that is monitored with particular attention during phases of increased uncertainty.
Parallel to this, ETF inflows into gold have remained “steady” from the perspective of BNP Paribas. Although there was a brief decline during the correction in the previous week, inflows picked up again afterwards. This is relevant for the market insofar as ETFs are often seen as a gauge of how heavily institutional and private investors weight gold in portfolios—especially when risks in financial markets or global politics are at the forefront.
Gold-Silver Ratio: Why BNP Paribas Expects a Wider Gap
Another important element in the analysts’ assessment is the gold-silver ratio. This ratio shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. BNP Paribas emphasizes that while the value is still below its two-year average “in the 80s,” it has recently picked up again. There is therefore still “room for more decoupling.”
The thought behind this is less technical than functional: gold is frequently seen by the market more as insurance against risks—that is, as an asset that can benefit from phases of crisis or uncertainty. Silver shares this character to some extent, but is at the same time more strongly influenced by short-term physical flows and general risk sentiment. In practice, this often leads to silver fluctuating more sharply in both directions, while gold appears more “defensive” in perception.
In this environment, a rising gold-silver ratio could mean that gold is in relatively higher demand than silver—even if both metals are fundamentally located in the same market segment. It is precisely this relative development that BNP Paribas highlights.
Silver: Strong Fluctuations, but Initial Signs of Easing Pressure
While the bank emphasizes structural drivers for gold, it paints a picture for silver characterized by extreme volatility. In recent months, the white commodity has fluctuated sharply—driven, among other things, by strong physical demand, particularly in parts of Asia. According to experts, this phase of intensive buying has further accelerated price movements.
At the same time, BNP Paribas now sees signs of a cooling in the physical market. They point out that metal stocks and delivery flows are moving to Europe and Asia, which could change the immediate supply pressure. Furthermore, the seasonal environment could dampen demand: according to analysts, the upcoming Chinese New Year is likely to temporarily weaken silver demand in China—an indication that short-term factors can have a stronger impact on silver than on gold.
Broadening Consensus in Favor of Gold
The bank is not alone in its assessment of gold. It points out that other major institutions—including Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.—believe gold is capable of a recovery or support through long-term demand drivers. Overall, this results in a picture in which gold continues to be viewed as a strategic building block: central banks remain active, ETF flows prove resilient, and the environment of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks remains a supporting factor according to the experts.
For investors who follow metals primarily as a “risk barometer,” BNP Paribas thus provides a clear classification: gold remains the calmer anchor—while silver offers opportunities for dynamic movements, it is simultaneously more strongly shaped by short-term demand fluctuations and market mechanics.
