The West’s significant dependence on China is well-known. Most often, this refers to intermediate products such as car batteries. However, raw materials are also affected, as China accounts for more than 90 percent of global production in rare earth elements and magnesium.

When discussing the West’s great dependence on China, most people primarily think of rare earth elements. Deng Xiaoping, who initiated China’s opening to the world following Mao Zedong’s rule, referred to them as a major bargaining chip that the People’s Republic holds in the international power and influence structure.

Magnesium receives far less attention. China also accounts for over 90 percent of global production of this critical raw material. But even less known is the case of antimony. Here, China’s share of world production is ‘only’ 48 percent. However, the situation remains critical for the West, as Russia, of all countries, possesses the world’s second-largest antimony reserves after China.

Why this currently poses a massive problem becomes quickly apparent when looking at the applications for antimony. It is used as a flame retardant, for example, when producing materials that are difficult to ignite. Another field of application is military technology, though. Here, antimony is used, among other things, in the production of ammunition.

No Combat-Ready Military Without Antimony

Modern infrared missiles, night vision devices, and nuclear weapons also cannot be manufactured without the use of antimony. In the civilian sector, the metal is used in batteries and photovoltaic systems. Since the majority of solar cells are now manufactured in the People’s Republic, the Chinese export restrictions imposed last year are not as severe for the West in this area.

However, the situation is different in the area of ammunition. Anyone who has followed the war in Ukraine even peripherally over the last three years will have noticed that ammunition consumption on both sides is enormous and the availability of artillery shells may even be decisive in the war.

China’s export restrictions on antimony thus hit a critical nerve in the West, which has a serious weakness here. The communist leadership in Beijing therefore justified the export restrictions on grounds of national security, as the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing announced in the summer of 2024, the restrictions were introduced ‘to protect national security and interests and to fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation.’

In its briefing, the ministry pointed out that the measures were not directed against any single country or specific region, but since Russia has the second-largest antimony reserves after China, the Sino-Russian friendship is unlikely to have been damaged by this move, but rather deepened.

Experts Had Expected Such a Move

This development does not come entirely unexpectedly, as analysts from China Securities explained in a research report published in April 2024 that the increasing demand for weapons and ammunition due to wars and geopolitical tensions would likely lead to tighter controls and an increase in stockpiles of antimony ore.

Christopher Ecclestone, director and mining strategist at Hallgarten Company in London, interpreted the decision at the time as a sign of the times: ‘The military use of antimony is now the tail wagging the dog. Everyone needs it for defense purposes, so it’s better to keep it than to sell it,’ he explained then and predicted: ‘This will put pressure on American and European armed forces.’

The new Chinese limits, which came into effect on September 15, 2024, apply to six different antimony products including antimony ore, antimony metals, and antimony oxide. China has also banned the export of gold-antimony smelting and separation technology without approval.

Since September 2024, Chinese companies wishing to export the affected products must apply for an export license for dual-use goods and technologies. This means that goods and technologies that can be used for both military and civilian purposes require special permission to continue to be exported from the Middle Kingdom.

The Pressure on the West is Increasing

For some time now, Western countries have been striving to reduce their dependence on China for critical raw materials. China’s export bans from last autumn have further fueled and intensified this development. Western countries are therefore taking measures to develop their own deposits or encouraging their mining companies to operate in countries considered politically stable and close to the West.

For instance, Perpetua Resources is developing an antimony-gold project in the USA with support from the Pentagon and the US Export-Import Bank. Originally, production was planned to start in 2028. Now the company is endeavoring to start production sooner.

Stock Rally for Aspiring Antimony Producers

As a consequence of increasing geopolitical tensions and Western governments’ attempts to gain access to their own or reliable antimony projects in countries classified as safe, investors immediately bought shares of mining companies with antimony projects, initiating a rally. However, as is often the case in the mining sector, this problem cannot be solved overnight.

The sector must and will therefore be rediscovered. The US military and the powerful weapons lobby will ensure this. Neither of them tolerates any nonsense in this regard. However, lost time can hardly be made up even with a lot of money, and what applies to all other raw materials also applies to antimony: before a mineral can be mined, it must first be found.

The US government therefore already begun financially supporting explorers and promoting efforts to bring antimony projects within the USA into production under Joe Biden. Under Donald Trump, this path will be continued. In addition to financial leverage, approval processes are now to be massively accelerated in order to achieve the desired greater independence from China more quickly.

The Train Hasn’t Left the Station Yet. It’s Just Starting to Roll

Other Western countries with significant raw material deposits are already following the USA in this regard or will soon do so. Time is pressing, and no one wants to be responsible for the planned rearmament to restore defense capabilities getting stuck halfway because, although more guns and tanks were produced, they have to make do without night vision devices, grenades, and ammunition for firing because the necessary antimony is missing.

Raw material investors therefore have good reasons to assume that critical minerals, including antimony, will come into focus much more strongly in the coming years than has been the case in the recent past. In the end, not only the heavyweights of the mining industry will benefit from this. Smaller companies with interesting antimony projects like Terra Balcanica Resources or Silver47 Exploration will also increasingly come into focus.

All investors who believe that the current rearmament plans are not just a short-term flash in the pan, but a long-lasting development, should therefore not only look at the Rheinmetalls, Hensolds, and Lockheed Martins of this world, but also at the antimony sector and companies like Terra Balcanica Resources and Silver47 Exploration on their radar.