The silver price continues its rally impressively: With quotations of more than 60 US dollars per ounce, the precious metal marks new all-time highs and clearly outperforms gold. However, despite the strong upward trend, Standard Chartered analysts expect the silver market to remain vulnerable to pullbacks in the short term – before the rally could enter a new round.
The current assessment focuses on the analysis of Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank. She sees the rise in silver prices as fundamentally supported, but expects a phase of “normalization” in the market, which should be accompanied by increased volatility.
Silver price at record high – gold/silver ratio at multi-year low
Silver has had an impressive performance this year: The price has risen by more than 100% over the course of the year. Spot silver was temporarily traded at around USD 60.72 per ounce – a new record level and a daily increase of over 4%.
The development in relation to gold is particularly striking. The gold/silver ratio has fallen to around 69 points, the lowest level since summer 2021. The lower this figure, the stronger silver has performed against gold.
Cooper classifies this dynamic as a tendency to exaggerate: Although there is much to be said for a structural revaluation of silver, technical factors and a reduction in overheating could lead to a correction in the short term. In other words, the overriding trend remains intact from her point of view, but the road to the top is becoming increasingly bumpy.
Silver: Fundamental situation remains robust – with new emphasis on inventories
According to Standard Chartered, the driving forces behind the silver rally are diverse. Since the end of August, a “perfect storm” of supply chain problems, strong industrial consumption and newly awakened investment interest has built up.
On the supply side, the logistics and supply chains have eased somewhat, but the uncertainty has not completely disappeared. At the same time, the physical market situation remains tense in different regions:
- London (LBMA): The inventories in the vaults of the London Bullion Market Association have increased by around 1,447 tons in the year to date.
- Comex: Standard Chartered is also recording an increase in the US warehouses of COMEX – here by around 4,311 tons since the beginning of the year.
- China: In contrast, inventories in the Chinese markets have declined, suggesting strong physical demand in the local industry.
According to the bank’s calculations, the ratio of inventories between LBMA and Comex is currently around 1.91 – the highest level since January. The majority of physical silver is therefore in London.
However, not all of the metal is available to the free market: A significant proportion of the inventories are tied up via physically backed silver ETPs (Exchange Traded Products). According to Cooper, around 78% of the silver inventories stored in LBMA vaults are accounted for by ETPs – an increase compared to 65% in November 2024, but below the 83% from September 2025, when the market situation became significantly more acute.
This development shows that liquidity in the market has eased somewhat compared to the phase of maximum constriction, but remains strongly dependent on the behavior of ETP investors.
Silver ETPs as a pace-setter: Inflows at the highest level since 2020
According to Standard Chartered, investment flows into silver ETPs are likely to set the tone in the short term. The products are currently recording the strongest inflows since 2020.
In November alone, the inventories of silver ETPs grew by 487 tons, and a further 475 tons were added in December. This underlines the attractiveness of silver as an investment vehicle, especially against the background of high price volatility and the discussion about critical raw materials.
The parallel movement of ETP inventories and inventories in London is interesting: While investment demand is growing, the available inventories in the LBMA vaults are increasing even faster. This suggests that the extreme bottlenecks of the past have eased somewhat – without the market being completely relaxed.
In this context, Cooper speaks of a “normalization” of market mechanics: High, but less hectic lease rates, replenished inventories in London and declining demand from India after the end of the seasonal holiday purchases have reduced the immediate tension. At the same time, the market environment remains susceptible to new disruptions, be it through demand surges or regulatory developments.
Outlook: Silver remains in an upward trend – with correction risk and political factor
Despite the already strong price gains, Standard Chartered retains a fundamentally positive view of the silver price. However, the bank assumes that the market will initially go through a consolidation phase before reaching new highs.
An important argument for this is the gold/silver ratio: At currently 69, it is still above its long-term average of around 65, but reflects the significant outperformance of silver in recent months. From Cooper’s point of view, the ratio therefore seems “somewhat overstretched” – an indication that a countermovement is possible in the short term.
There is also a political risk factor: The market is eagerly awaiting the Section 232 Critical Mineral Report from the US government. Depending on how silver or related materials are classified there, this could exacerbate regional market bottlenecks, for example through new trade restrictions or tariff structures. Such a development could further increase volatility and widen regional price differences.
Overall, Standard Chartered paints a picture of silver as a precious metal in a sustained upward trend – driven by robust fundamentals, but increasingly characterized by tactical investment flows and political influencing factors. Short-term pullbacks and pronounced fluctuations are part of the scenario in such an environment before the market – from the analysts’ point of view – can potentially set new highs.
