China is loosening the reins on strategic raw materials: Beijing has temporarily lifted the almost year-long export stop for gallium, germanium and antimony to the USA. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the restriction introduced in 2024 will be suspended until November 27, 2026. The decision marks a further relaxation in the technological trade conflict and could relieve pressure on semiconductor, sensor and defense supply chains in the short term.
Why China is Releasing Gallium, Germanium and Antimony
The original ban was imposed at the end of 2024 in response to US controls on high-performance memory chips. With the current temporary suspension, Beijing is signaling its willingness to engage in dialogue – without relinquishing its instruments. This is because the measure is limited in time and, in addition to the metals, also includes near-end-use products and technologies that could be regulated again if necessary. For the USA, the relaxation affects three raw materials classified as “critical”: Gallium and germanium are key components for semiconductors, radar and infrared technology, fiber optics and solar cells; antimony plays a central role in flame retardants, primers for ammunition, alloys and batteries, among other things.
Strategic Importance: Raw Materials at the Interface of Security and High-Tech
The relevance of the decision is explained by China’s market power. According to estimates, almost 99% of global refined gallium production comes from China; for germanium, the share of refining is around 60%. For antimony, almost 50% of mine production comes from the Middle Kingdom. Industries reacted accordingly sensitively when the restrictions came into force in 2024. The US Geological Survey quantified the potential impact of the gallium and germanium restrictions on the US economy alone at up to USD 3.4 billion, around half of which in the semiconductor industry – a core arena of systemic competition.
For companies along the value chain – from wafer manufacturers to optoelectronics and defense electronics – the temporary opening reduces the risk of supply gaps, price peaks and stockpiling. At the same time, the dependency remains: The license and control architecture gives Beijing leeway to control exports on a situational basis.
Classification: Tactical De-Escalation, No Paradigm Shift
The current suspension is in line with further relief measures: Just a few days ago, China announced that it would suspend additional export requirements for rare earth and battery minerals for one year. Both steps indicate a tactical de-escalation – without giving up the strategic position. For the USA, diversification remains the top priority: Initiatives for domestic production, recycling and alliances with producers in Europe, Canada or Australia are intended to reduce vulnerability. In the short term, however, Chinese supplies are likely to remain decisive, especially for gallium.
For customer companies, this means: Security of supply is temporarily improved, but plans for procurement, warehousing and qualification of alternative sources remain a priority. Contracts with flex clauses and multi-source strategies remain useful in an environment in which trade rules can be adjusted politically.
Looking ahead: What the Relaxation Means for Markets and Politics
With the temporary opening, the industry is given breathing space, for example to reduce backlogs and negotiate orders at stable conditions. Whether this will lead to sustainable relaxation depends on several factors: the progress of US technology controls, the bilateral dialogue and the question of whether China will extend, tighten or selectively adjust the suspension. In any case, the signal effect remains clear: Gallium, germanium and antimony are geopolitical levers – and therefore more than just raw materials.
For the markets, the news is likely to dampen price volatility and reduce risk premiums in the short term. In the medium to long term, the concentration of supply remains a structural issue. Industries that rely on III-V semiconductors (gallium compounds), IR optics (germanium) or flame-retardant plastics and special alloys (antimony) will continue to have to weigh cost efficiency against resilience.
Conclusion: The suspension of the export stop provides the USA and global customers of gallium, germanium and antimony with short-term planning security. However, it does not replace the long-term task of diversifying supply chains and building up own capacities – because, after all, Beijing can tighten the control screw again at any time and US policy under President Trump is currently anything but constant.
