The copper market is currently remarkably tense. Copper remains above 13,200 US dollars per ton and even temporarily moved above 13,300 US dollars, after the price had already risen for four consecutive weeks. This keeps the industrial metal within striking distance of the extreme levels seen at the beginning of the year.
Decisive factors are primarily new supply risks arising from the war in the Middle East and its consequences for the supply of sulfur and sulfuric acid. At the same time, constructive signals continue to come from the demand side, especially from China.
Copper Under Pressure on the Supply Side
At the center of the current market movement is a raw material that often receives little attention outside the industry: sulfuric acid. It is a central input for copper production using the SX-EW process, i.e., in the leaching of oxide ores. Goldman Sachs points out that this process accounts for about 17% of the global copper supply; Reuters even states approximately one-fifth for primary refined copper. If sulfuric acid becomes scarce, this affects not only individual producers but a noticeable portion of the world market.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz creates additional pressure. The war in the Middle East has disrupted important supply chains for sulfur and the sulfuric acid produced from it. China, the world’s largest producer of sulfuric acid, intends to restrict or stop its exports from May 1 to protect its own supply. This exacerbates the situation for copper producers who rely on imported acid. The market reacts accordingly sensitively, because such a bottleneck increases production costs and, in extreme cases, can directly lead to outages.
Chile and the DR Congo Move into Focus
Goldman Sachs sees Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo as particularly exposed. In the DR Congo, according to the bank’s assessment, companies still have inventories for two to three months. However, should supply chain disruptions extend beyond the end of May into June, approximately 125,000 tons of copper production could be lost there this year. This is particularly relevant because the country relies on the Gulf region for most of its sulfuric acid imports.
Chile, the world’s most important copper producer, is also under pressure. Reuters reports that China did not ship any sulfuric acid to Chile in March 2026 for the first time since July 2023. In February, it was still 31,870 tons, and in March 2025, even 151,268 tons. According to Goldman, a sustained Chinese export brake could jeopardize around 200,000 tons of Chilean production, which corresponds to about 1% of the global supply. Morgan Stanley estimates Chilean SX-EW production at around 1.125 million tons per year; about 20% of the acid supply required for this comes from China.
This is precisely where the urgency for the copper market becomes apparent: Even if mines do not immediately shut down, a prolonged interruption in acid supply can significantly alter the production profiles of important countries. This also explains why Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecast of an average of 12,650 US dollars per ton for 2026, despite an officially expected surplus of 490,000 tons. The market is confronted with a theoretical surplus, but at the same time with real supply chain risks that can turn into physical shortages at any time.
Copper Also Receives Support from the Demand Side
In addition to supply concerns, demand also supports the price level. China, the world’s largest copper consumer, continues to send positive signals. Bloomberg reported earlier this week on record output from Chinese copper smelters in March. In parallel, a market report pointed to declining inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and persistently strong seasonal demand.
Accordingly, copper remained at a high level in recent days. Reuters reported on Wednesday an increase to 13,448.5 US dollars per ton, the highest level in more than seven weeks. Although the metal was still below the record high of 14,527.5 US dollars on January 29, 2026, the distance is manageable. The market is thus once again in an area where both fundamental data and geopolitical developments can very quickly trigger new price surges.
Long-Term Outlook for Copper Remains Bullish
While Goldman Sachs focuses more on the tension between surplus forecasts and supply risks in the short term, the longer-term tone in the market remains constructive. At the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, commodity trader Traxys also expressed optimism. Its CEO, Mark Kristoff, expects copper to rise to 15,000 US dollars per ton within the next 24 to 36 months. While he does not necessarily expect another jump this year, the medium-term direction remains upward, in his view.
This creates an unusually dense mix of risks and opportunities for the copper market. In the short term, disruptions around sulfur, sulfuric acid, and the Strait of Hormuz dominate. In the medium term, however, copper remains a metal that benefits from structural demand from industry, electrification, and infrastructure. This is precisely why the market remains at a high level despite all fluctuations – and precisely why copper is likely to remain one of the most closely watched base metals in the coming months.
