The lithium price in China jumped significantly at the start of the week after the CEO of Ganfeng Lithium, the world’s third-largest and China’s largest manufacturer of lithium compounds and, based on production, the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium metals, predicted a sharp increase in demand for 2026.
On the futures market, the most traded lithium carbonate contract temporarily rose by around 9%, reaching its highest level since June 2024. The trigger was statements by Ganfeng Chairman Li Liangbin, who forecast demand growth of 30 to 40% for the battery metal.
At the same time, many market participants continue to expect a sustained upswing in the lithium sector, driven primarily by growing demand from stationary energy storage systems and the battery industry. The recent price jump is part of an already ongoing rally: in November alone, lithium carbonate prices in China have risen by more than 17%.
Lithium Price in China at a Multi-Month High
The focus of the current development is the lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. It rose to around 95,200 yuan per ton, which corresponds to around 13,400 US dollars, and thus approached the upper limit of the permissible daily movement. This put the lithium price at its highest level since mid-2024.
The dynamic was triggered by a report by the Chinese financial portal Cailian, which picked up statements by Ganfeng CEO Li Liangbin from an industry conference. Li predicted that demand for lithium for batteries could grow by 30% or even 40% in 2026. This expectation relates both to the continued expansion of electromobility and to the increased use of battery storage in the energy sector.
Against this background, Li also outlined price scenarios for lithium carbonate. Accordingly, the lithium price in China could rise to over 150,000 yuan per ton – in a particularly dynamic environment even towards 200,000 yuan. By comparison, futures were significantly lower in the summer after the market had previously experienced a prolonged period of falling prices.
The statements of the Ganfeng manager did not fail to have an effect on the share prices of Chinese producers. Papers from Ganfeng Lithium rose by around 7.5% in the domestic market, while competitors such as Chengxin Lithium and Tianqi Lithium almost reached their daily limits with price gains of around 10%.
Ganfeng Lithium and the Expectation of a Demand Boom in 2026
As one of the largest lithium producers in the world, Ganfeng Lithium plays a central role in the global supply chain for battery raw materials. Li Liangbin’s forecast is therefore followed attentively by many market participants – even if it expressly represents a company view and not an official market assessment.
The expectation of a demand boom in 2026 is based on assumptions about several developments: On the one hand, the demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles continues to grow, even if the dynamic temporarily weakens in some markets. On the other hand, the area of stationary energy storage is gaining in importance. Above all, large-scale storage in the power grid, which is intended to cushion fluctuations from renewable energies, is regarded as an additional driver for lithium-based battery systems.
Ganfeng itself is active in various stages of the value chain – from extraction and processing to battery chemistry. From a company perspective, a rising lithium price could facilitate investments in new capacities, but at the same time also increases the cost base for downstream industries such as cell manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers.
For market participants, the question remains whether the demand development outlined by Ganfeng will be reflected in actual orders. In any case, the forecast indicates that large producers do not expect a structural oversupply in the medium term, even if the market still has a certain supply reserve at present.
Supply Risks: Delayed Mine from CATL also Supports Lithium Price
In addition to the demand side, the supply also plays an important role in the current price movement. In China, the focus is also on the Jianxiawo lithium project in the city of Yichun in Jiangxi Province. The mine, which belongs to the battery manufacturer CATL and is considered the group’s flagship project, has not yet been able to resume operations as planned.
The delayed reopening reinforces the concern that less domestic ore will be available in the medium term than previously expected. According to earlier reports, CATL is currently increasingly resorting to external sources of supply to obtain lithium ore and produce lithium carbonate from it as long as Jianxiawo remains at a standstill. This additional purchasing requirement on the market has a price-driving effect and supports the recent rally in the lithium price.
At the same time, the current price level is still far from the highs of 2022, when lithium carbonate in China was temporarily traded at around 600,000 yuan per ton. At that time, expectations of a very rapid expansion of electromobility and bottlenecks on the supply side had led to a massive price bubble, which was followed by a longer correction.
Against this background, market participants interpret the recent increase more as a return to a higher, but less extreme price level. Whether this will develop into a permanent price band or just an interim rally depends primarily on how quickly new production capacities go into operation and how the actual demand development in the years 2025 and 2026 takes shape.
Importance for the Global Lithium Market
The recent developments in China are of central importance for the global lithium market, as the country plays a dominant role both on the processing side and in battery production. Price movements on Chinese stock exchanges often act as a signal for other regions and are incorporated into the calculations of producers, cell manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers.
Rising prices can, on the one hand, help to make new projects economically viable and stimulate the development of additional deposits. On the other hand, they increase costs along the battery value chain and can put pressure on margins or end prices for electric vehicles and energy storage.
