Commodity markets have experienced extreme fluctuations in recent weeks – but not all analysts see this as a shift in sentiment. Despite the exceptional volatility, Canadian bank CIBC maintains its constructive outlook on gold and silver and has significantly raised its price forecasts in an update. According to CIBC, the core of their argument primarily revolves around ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset in turbulent times, and expectations of further US dollar weakening.
On Wednesday, CIBC’s commodity analysts published an updated assessment. According to this, gold is expected to reach an average of $6,000 US dollars per ounce in the current year. This is a significant jump compared to the previous forecast from October 2025, when the bank still anticipated $4,500 US dollars per ounce as the annual average. At the same time, CIBC emphasizes that despite recent pullbacks, they continue to see a broad upward trend.
CIBC Sees Gold in an Overall Upward Trend Through 2026/27
Beyond the current year, CIBC expects average prices to continue rising. In its updated forecast, the bank anticipates that gold prices could peak at an average of $6,500 US dollars per ounce in 2027. This underscores that for analysts, the recent correction is not a trend reversal but rather an interim movement within a larger picture.
CIBC considers it important that the drivers that already fueled demand in 2025 are still present. Geopolitical risks are specifically mentioned – from the bank’s perspective, a factor that fundamentally supports demand for “safe havens.” In addition, there is a second crucial component for CIBC: the expectation of further US dollar weakness and a related reallocation away from US government bonds.
In the bank’s choice of words, the topic of “dollar debasement” – meaning the fear of a creeping devaluation of the reserve currency – plays a central role. CIBC argues that both central banks and investors might quietly and gradually seek alternatives to US bonds in an environment of increased uncertainty. This would prospectively support gold.
Silver Forecast: CIBC Expects High Average Prices in 2026 and 2027
CIBC also presents a clear numerical picture for silver. For the current year, the bank expects an average price of around $105 US dollars per ounce. In the coming year, silver is even projected to rise to an average of $120 US dollars per ounce according to this interpretation.
CIBC thus signals that it views silver not merely as a “follower” of the gold trend, but as an independent market that – despite higher volatility – could benefit in the same overarching environment. The communication also makes it clear: the bank does not ignore recent volatility but classifies it as a correction within a fundamentally supported environment.
US Monetary Policy as a Trigger – Yet No Change in CIBC’s View
It is interesting how CIBC explains the recent market movement. The bank points out that the decline from the record high in the previous week was triggered by a political announcement: US President Donald Trump had announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the successor to Jerome Powell at the head of the US Federal Reserve. In the immediate reaction, markets apparently viewed Warsh as a candidate who could ensure the political independence of the Fed – and also as a rather hawkish monetary policymaker.
However, CIBC places its own emphasis here: the analysts describe Warsh as a kind of “dove in hawk’s clothing.” Their interpretation: while Warsh advocated for a tighter balance sheet policy for the Fed (i.e., a reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet), he linked this with the goal of curbing inflation and thereby enabling lower interest rates for the real economy (“Main Street”). Furthermore, Warsh recently signaled support for Trump’s efforts towards government efficiency – from the bank’s perspective, also an argument that could point towards lower inflationary pressure and thus potentially lower interest rates.
Regardless of personnel issues, CIBC goes further and formulates a clear expectation: it is unlikely that any candidate would be able or willing to steer the US Federal Reserve onto a course in 2026 that does not lead to falling interest rates. This point is also part of the argument why, in the bank’s view, gold and silver could remain well supported despite short-term fluctuations.
Broader Picture: CIBC Points to Global Trust Issues with Fiat Currencies
Beyond US monetary policy, CIBC bases its outlook on a broader thesis: the trend towards hedging against the devaluation of fiat currencies is global and not limited to the US. The analysis also considers the status of US government bonds: if bonds are no longer perceived as “risk-free” by market participants, the pressure to find alternative safe havens increases – and the selection is limited.
In this context, CIBC refers to near-record debt-to-GDP ratios in many Western economies and the political incentive to “inflate” out of the problem rather than through strict consolidation. In such an environment, gold – according to the core message – can continue to attract demand as a store of value.
Thus, CIBC provides a clear, data-driven positioning: gold at $6,000 US dollars per ounce on an annual average in 2026, silver at $105 US dollars, and an outlook that also foresees higher average values in 2027 – despite the understanding that the path there may be accompanied by significant fluctuations.
