The development of the copper price currently appears rather unspectacular, but in the background, voices are growing that predict significantly higher prices for the red metal. In a recent edition of the market analysis “Metal Matters,” the US major bank Citi outlines a scenario in which the copper price could rise to up to $12,000 USD per ton by the second quarter of 2026. This forecast is particularly noteworthy given that current demand figures do not yet indicate a broad recovery.
Copper has long been considered a barometer for the global economy, as the metal is used in numerous industries – from the electrical industry to mechanical engineering and renewable energies. It is therefore closely monitored how consumption, supply and price development evolve in the copper market. Citi assumes that the market is currently in a kind of “breather” that obscures the view of possible structural changes in the coming years.
Copper: Subdued Consumption despite Stable Global Demand
In its analysis, Citi refers to its own demand indicators, which for September show only an increase of around 1% in global copper consumption compared to the previous year. Outside of China, the tracker recorded an increase of about 2%, while demand in the Middle Kingdom stagnated. China is traditionally one of the most important buyers of the base metal, which is why a flat development there leaves clear traces in the global picture.
The bank expects these subdued figures to characterize the remainder of 2025. One reason for this is the comparatively high starting point of 2024, which statistically dampens growth. In addition, there are weaker signals from the industry, which in many economies are reacting to the uncertain situation with cautious investment decisions and a restrained build-up of production.
From Citi’s perspective, this phase of weakness is nevertheless more of a cyclical phenomenon than a fundamental turnaround in the metal copper. From the bank’s perspective, the current copper price already partially reflects the expectation that the weakness in demand will not last.
Structural Bottlenecks could Characterize the Copper Market from 2026
In the medium term, Citi expects a changed environment for copper. From 2026, a looser
On the supply side, the bank sees possible bottlenecks. The construction of new copper mines is complex, capital-intensive and time-consuming. Delays in projects, declining ore grades in existing deposits or regulatory hurdles can slow down production. Citi points to the risk that the market could slip into structural deficits if supply does not keep pace with rising demand.
In an environment in which a gap between consumption and production opens up, the copper price, according to the analysts’ assessment, would be increasingly dominated by scarcity considerations rather than by current inventory and demand figures. The forecast range of up to $12,000 USD per ton by mid-2026 reflects this view: copper could enter a phase in which structural factors come to the fore.
Copper Price between Weak Present and Arbitrage Signals
Interestingly, despite the weak short-term data situation, Citi assumes that the market is already looking ahead. The price development of the copper price could decouple from the current, rather subdued physical demand if market participants bet on the expected recovery.
In this context, the bank refers to “bullish US copper arbitrage dynamics”. This means that price differences between different trading venues and contracts create incentives for arbitrage transactions, which in turn favor positionings that assume rising prices. Such structures can reinforce the perception that a market is in a transition phase – even if current economic data still signal restraint.
For observers of the commodities sector, this results in a differentiated picture: On the one hand, the current indicators show only moderate growth in copper consumption, especially in China. On the other hand, forecasts such as those from Citi suggest that the metal could be characterized by a mixture of significantly increasing demand and limited supply in the medium to long term.
Copper Remains an Indicator for Global Economic and Structural Trends
The copper price is thus an example of the areas of tension in which commodity markets move: short-term economic fluctuations on the one hand, possible structural bottlenecks and long-term transformation processes on the other. Citi paints a picture of a market in which the current calm does not necessarily have to indicate persistent weakness, but can be interpreted as an intermediate phase on the way to a tighter market environment.
Copper thus remains a central reference point for assessing global economic trends. Whether the price levels of up to $12,000 USD per ton outlined by the bank will actually be realized depends on numerous factors – from the development of the global economy to the supply side in mining and political and monetary policy frameworks. However, one thing is clear: the discussion about the metal copper and its future importance in industry and the energy transition will continue to accompany the market intensively in the coming years.
