The Bank of America anticipates a significant increase in copper prices in the coming years. This is driven by ongoing production disruptions in key mines and simultaneously stable, in some cases rising, demand in major sales markets.
According to the institution, copper is projected to average $11,313 per ton in 2026 – approximately 11% more than previously anticipated. For 2027, the bank forecasts $13,501 per ton (up 12.5%) and considers a peak value of $15,000 per ton or $6.80 per pound possible. This forecast reflects an increasingly tight market characterized by low inventories and declining treatment and refining charges.
Copper Forecast to 2027: Figures, Assumptions, Market Framework
The new Bank of America forecast outlines a trajectory where copper gradually becomes more expensive, trading above 2026 levels again in 2027. From the analysts’ perspective, the key factor is the discrepancy between mine production and sustained demand in electrification, grid expansion, and industry. The anticipated price peak of $15,000 per ton would – if achieved – significantly boost smelting and recycling activities, but in the short term, it does not alter the core issue: insufficient ore and expiring projects. For futures trading on the LME and COMEX, the bank anticipates increased volatility, as even minor shifts in deliveries and receipts can impact spreads and premiums.
Supply Side under Pressure: from Grasberg to Cobre Panamá
On the supply side, the bank identifies bottlenecks at several major sites. The problem areas cited include Grasberg (Indonesia), El Teniente (Chile), and Kamoa-Kakula (Democratic Republic of Congo). Additional pressure stems from delays in Teck‘s Quebrada Blanca II (QB2) project in Chile, as well as the indefinitely suspended production at First Quantum’s Cobre Panamá. In aggregate, this reduces the available ore for smelters, which is reflected in the sharply decreased Treatment and Refining Charges (TC/RC) – a classic indicator of raw material scarcity.
While China’s recently expanded smelting capacity has boosted processing, the Bank of America states that the structural problem lies not with the smelters, but with mine production itself: simply too little new material is being supplied to compensate for outages and delays.
Demand Remains Resilient: China, Europe, and New Applications
Despite supply challenges, copper demand remains robust. In China, grid expansion related to renewable energies primarily underpins consumption. Additionally, investments in data centers and infrastructure for AI applications, which demand high performance from power grids and cooling systems – both areas with above-average copper usage – contribute to this. In Europe, after an extended period of weakness, initial signs of stabilization are emerging. For energy transition industries – from wind power and photovoltaics to electromobility – copper remains a critical base material for cables, transformers, and motors. These demand pillars mitigate cyclical weaknesses in individual sectors and support overall consumption, even with regional variations.
Low LME Inventories and Market Mechanics: Risk of Price Spikes
Regarding inventories, the bank highlights unusually low LME stockpiles. With continued robust demand, this increases the market’s vulnerability to short squeezes and temporary price spikes. Analysts also emphasize that available tonnages have increasingly been redirected to the USA – indicating that certain regions are paying premiums to secure supply. These shifts can further fragment regional price formation and widen the disparity between exchange prices and physical premiums. In summary, the Bank of America depicts a market potentially entering a structurally tighter phase: insufficient new mine capacity encountering investment-driven demand impulses. For companies across the value chain – from mine operators to smelters to cable and component manufacturers – securing raw material flows and supply chains thus becomes an even greater priority.
The updated estimates from the Bank of America thus underscore the tensions in the copper market: production disruptions at major deposits, project delays, and low exchange inventories are met by investment-backed demand in energy and digital infrastructure. From the institution’s perspective, this leads to a higher price trajectory until 2027 and the risk of short-term price surges. For market participants, therefore, the market mechanics are more crucial than the direction – particularly the question of how quickly additional copper volumes become available and how regional premiums evolve.
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