Gold has traded sideways for the last few weeks, but the price action is forming a bottom, said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors.
Despite market volatility ahead of the November presidential election, Holmes maintains his $4,000 price target.
“The bottom that you’re seeing in gold is like a perfect Miami beach bottom. Gold will go up and it will go down, the DNA of volatility you can measure over 20 trading days, 60 trading days, 12 months, it was up when we talked about a time for a correction in in the beginning of August three standard deviations over 20 trading days. It’s now down one standard deviation,” Holmes told Kitco News.
Gold has trended down from its August highs and has not broken past above $2,000 an ounce mid-August.
Physical gold demand has historically picked up following the summer, Holmes said.
“It’s love season. It’s the seasonality of two wedding seasons in India, it’s the season of lights of Diwali, then we have Christmas, and it peaks for Chinese New Year,” he said. “It’s an auspicious time for the consumption of gold, and it’s most highly correlated with GDP per capita growth.”
Importantly, China and India’s GDP per capita has significantly increased over the past few decades, from over 5% of the world’s gold to 53%, Holmes noted.
The outcome of the presidential election would not move the gold price either way, Holmes said.
“Some are betting on blue, some betting on red, and I’m betting on gold,” he said.