Two great players dominate
The race for the future of the world and the role of economic and political leader will not only be fought on Earth, but also in space. For some time now, individual countries have been positioning themselves and the USA in particular has been striving to assert its leading role in the development of space. Democrat John F. Kennedy wanted to go to the moon in the 1960s and for Republican Donald Trump, the motto “America first” also applies to Mars. Immediately after his inauguration, the new president made it clear that an American should be the first to set foot on Mars. For young, up-and-coming companies with a space background such as Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB, WKN: A3CY7P) or AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS, WKN: A3CL8W), these are dazzling prospects, as the budgets are high and their services are indispensable if the landing on the neighboring planet is to succeed.
On the way to Mars, the moon and the asteroids flying around in space represent an important stopover, as they contain the important rare earth elements. Together with other as yet unexploited mineral deposits, they represent an important opportunity to exploit the diverse resources of space in the long term.
Satellites and space stations will be of great importance for strategic control and the concrete implementation of these plans. They offer military and communication advantages. Their importance therefore corresponds to the role of trade routes and trading stations during the colonial era.
In economic terms, the space industry is still only a dwarf. However, it is a very fast-growing dwarf, as the industry is expected to generate an annual turnover of one trillion US dollars by 2040. This development will be driven in the coming years by sectors such as satellite manufacturing, space tourism and planetary mining.
Two major players currently dominate activities in space
China and the United States currently account for over 73% of global government spending on space. The USA occupies the leading position. At 79.7 billion US dollars, its budget exceeds that of all other nations combined.
The focus here is on space exploration. Here, the Artemis program aims to establish a moon base and thus pave the way for missions to Mars. The area of defense and security is also very important. A considerable amount of funding is therefore being made available for military capabilities in space. The aim is to secure the strategic dominance of the USA in orbit as well.
Last but not least, the focus is on commercial partnerships. The rise of private companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin reduces costs and accelerates innovation. The USA wants to use this advantage for itself, just as the Netherlands once used the innovative power of the East India Company for itself.
The big rival here is China. With a volume of 19.8 billion US dollars, the Middle Kingdom is the second largest donor. It combines scientific research with geopolitical influence. In the field of scientific research, lunar missions are planned and the Chinese want to have brought samples from the surface of Mars to Earth by 2030.
With the Tiangong space station, China is positioning itself as a global cooperation partner that competes with the ISS. This is also about gaining geopolitical influence on Earth through cooperation with other countries. The goals of the Chinese are very ambitious. A robotic moon base is to be built by 2028. Manned moon missions are planned for the 2030s.
Europe breathlessly chasing the leading space powers
Compared to the expenditure of China and the United States, European expenditure on space exploration and utilization is rather small. Europe’s combined expenditure is significantly lower than that of the Americans and Chinese. This weakness is due to structural challenges.
Aerospace research in Europe is still very fragmented. There are several authorities with overlapping competencies and competing national interests prevent a unified approach to space exploration.
The old world has also lost touch with technology. Following the decommissioning of the Ariane 5 rocket, Europe has almost ceased to be a provider of rocket launches due to delays in the development and production of the successor model, Ariane 6. For competitors such as Rocket Lab, the European weakness is a clear advantage because a competitor that should be taken seriously has weakened itself and maneuvered itself into the sidelines. For European aerospace companies, however, this increases the risk of being left behind.
Europe also appears weak in terms of research and development budgets. France spends 3.7 billion US dollars a year on its space programs, Germany only 2.85 billion US dollars. This means that the EU lags far behind China and the USA. Without increased cooperation and higher investment, Europeans therefore run the risk of only playing a minor role in the space race in the future.
At USD 6.7 billion, Japan has a higher research and development budget than Germany and France combined. Like India (USD 1.88 billion), it is currently focusing primarily on niche capabilities such as the exploration of asteroids and the moon in order to remain competitive.
Eyes on China and the future
The era of colonialism is rightly viewed critically today. Although it enabled the European powers to achieve considerable GDP growth and a substantial accumulation of wealth, this was often at the expense of the indigenous population and the environment in the colonized regions.
The opening up of space could give the nations involved a similarly significant economic boost and also become an engine for progress and prosperity, although this would not be achieved on the backs of indigenous peoples.
In the West, the fear of falling behind China is currently very great. Added to this is the high dependency on raw materials that are either almost exclusively mined in China or processed there. Both of these developments are likely to lead to a further acceleration in the enormous government support and funding for space travel in the coming years.
Satellites are a key factor here due to their connectivity. They are also an effective means for the West to prevent other countries from coming under Chinese control in the information war that has already begun. This key factor could therefore easily be of decisive importance for the next 50 years.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine has clearly shown what space technology is already capable of achieving on the battlefield. This is not just about espionage technology and the guidance of missiles during flight, but also, as the example of Starlink has impressively shown, the provision of fast communication on the battlefield that is available at all times.
Against this background, it can be assumed that the technology that Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are already providing today will become even more important in the future, because without inexpensive rocket technology and secure communication, the development of space will remain just a distant dream.
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