The WTI oil prices fell by more than 1.5% at times at the beginning of the week and were at around USD 56.40 per barrel. The initial reaction of the financial markets to the US intervention in Venezuela was characterized by cautious optimism, reflecting the expectation that the removal of the Venezuelan president could lead to a political reorientation towards the US sphere of influence.
In the short term, the prospects for oil exports in particular appear to remain largely unchanged. Venezuela has around 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves, but in recent years its ability to extract and process crude oil has deteriorated significantly. Current production is estimated at less than one million barrels per day, of which around half is exported – this corresponds to less than 1% of global supply.
Against this background and given the fact that analysts had already predicted a surplus on the global oil markets for 2026 before the weekend, the current price decline is not surprising when considering the medium-term prospect of an increase in Venezuelan oil exports to the world market.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
