Silver at $46 per Ounce by the End of the Third Quarter?
The gold price has risen by more than 27% since the beginning of the year, and many analysts believe there is a path towards $4,000 for the yellow metal. However, not all experts are so optimistic. For example, Citigroup believes that an ounce of Gold could cost less than $3,000 again by the end of the year.
Accordingly, the analysts have lowered their forecast for the gold price this week. For a 0 to 3 month outlook, they now expect $3,300 per ounce, down from $3,500 per ounce previously, while the 6 to 12 month forecast for gold is now $2,800. Previously, Citigroup had assumed $3,000 per ounce. From the current level, this would represent a decrease of around 16%.
Recovery of the Global Economy Likely to Reduce Attractiveness of Gold
The experts believe that the precious metal’s appeal as a safe haven will decrease as the economic environment brightens from the end of 2025 or early 2026. Investment demand in particular will decline, according to Citigroup, as both President Trump’s popularity and growth in the US are likely to pick up again towards the midterms.
Uncertainty about economic development remains at a high level, but confidence is growing in the United States that a recession can be avoided and inflationary pressure can be kept in check, it was said.
A Key Factor for the Pessimistic Gold Price Outlook is US Monetary Policy
The Citigroup analysts view US monetary policy as particularly negative for the yellow metal, as they expect the US Federal Reserve will ultimately lower the key interest rate to support economic growth.
The bankers also see the possibility that gold could rise to more than $3,500 in the third quarter of 2025 due to increasing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty about global trade, as well as resulting economic weakness.
On the other hand, they explained, an end to global trade conflicts and easing geopolitical tensions could cause gold to fall back below the $3,000 per ounce mark. The bankers estimate the chance of this scenario occurring at only 20%, however.
Silver with Considerable Potential
While the Citigroup analysts are rather pessimistic about gold, they see significant potential for its little brother silver. Here, the experts expect an increase to $40 per ounce in the next six to 12 months. As justification, they add that the availability of the precious and industrial metal will decrease while demand will remain robust.
There is even a possibility, according to the analysts, that the silver price could rise to $46 per ounce by the third quarter of this year, should the global trade war be quickly resolved.
