Tungsten has become one of the most striking bottleneck commodities on the market within a short period. The metal, which is used in semiconductors as well as in weapons, drilling technology, and wear-resistant industrial applications, has more than doubled this year according to available data. The key benchmark is Fastmarkets’ European APT price, which now stands at $2,250 per metric ton unit. Since Beijing placed certain tungsten products on an export control list in February of last year, the increase has totaled 557%!
This brings tungsten into sharper focus not only in terms of price, but also geopolitically. The market is dominated by China, while demand from the defense sector is rising and Western buyers have increasingly depleted their inventories. The recent escalation in the Middle East has particularly heightened attention on military requirements. A relatively small and illiquid specialty metal market has thus become a commodity where supply risks, industrial policy, and geopolitical tensions are particularly evident.
Tungsten Evolves from Niche Metal to Strategic Bottleneck
Unlike large commodity markets such as copper, oil, or gold, tungsten remains a comparatively small segment. Project Blue estimates the market value this year at approximately $16 billion. This would represent only about 5% of the copper market at current prices. At the same time, the market is significantly less transparent and less liquid, as tungsten is not traded on major exchanges. This very structure makes price spikes particularly likely in a tight environment.
The current shortage has several causes. Manufacturers have been seeking alternative sources since the tightening of Chinese export regulations. According to experts at Project Blue, Chinese exports of the affected tungsten products were approximately 40% lower last year. Since China dominates global production, such shortfalls are difficult to compensate for in the short term. Additionally, according to BMO Capital Markets, the market is currently in an exceptionally tight situation. Unlike in previous commodity booms, there is apparently no large pipeline of projects that could come to market in the near term for tungsten.
This situation is particularly evident in the fact that the price increase has recently accelerated further. Buyers are drawing on inventories while attention on military applications intensifies. This means that tungsten is no longer evaluated solely according to industrial logic, but increasingly from the perspective of strategic availability.
China Shapes Supply and Price Formation for Tungsten
China’s key role is central to the tungsten market. According to the US Geological Survey, 79% of the 85,000 tons of global mine production last year came from China. In addition, China is not only the largest producer, but also the country with the largest tungsten reserves. This combination gives Beijing considerable influence over production, processing, and exports.
Western manufacturers long benefited from low-cost imports from China. These price advantages were also an expression of state support in China, which enabled a dominant position in the global supply chain. In the United States, no tungsten has been commercially mined since 2015. This very dependence has now become a problem. With the tightening of export regulations, tungsten has become more deeply entangled in the geopolitical conflict between China and the West.
In addition to export controls, structural factors within China itself also play a role. Mine production is below the level of ten years ago, which is partly due to declining ore quality and stricter production quotas. This intensifies pressure on a market where only a few suppliers are active in any case. At the same time, according to prospective tungsten producer Almonty Industries, prices have recently been able to align more closely with supply and demand because the previous distortions from cheap Chinese exports have diminished.
Defense Demand and Semiconductors Intensify the Shortage
The current market situation is further exacerbated by demand developments. Project Blue expects military consumption of tungsten to increase by 12% this year. This affects applications in helicopters, fighter aircraft, and ammunition. Developments in the Middle East in particular have drawn attention to how heavily modern warfare relies on a multitude of metal-intensive systems.
At the same time, the defense sector remains only part of the overall market. According to the US Geological Survey, approximately 60% of US consumption goes into cemented carbide components for cutting, drilling, and wear applications, such as in construction and metalworking. Additional applications include aerospace alloys, chemicals, and semiconductors. This broad industrial base ensures that tungsten remains tight not only due to geopolitical crises, but also through normal industrial demand.
Some buyers are somewhat better protected against current supply problems. Companies such as Ceratizit from the Plansee Group or Sandvik point to recycling and scrap processing as important instruments for risk mitigation. The USGS also notes that secondary material can cushion some of the pressure on primary supply. Nevertheless, recycling alone is unlikely to be sufficient to eliminate the structural shortage of tungsten.
New Tungsten Production in the West Requires Time
Short-term solutions are not in sight. While additional volumes could potentially come from Spain, Brazil, Australia, or the United States, even with persistently high prices, new Western production would require approximately two years to actually become available, according to assessments from the critical raw materials investment sector. This timeframe is significant in such a tight market.
Almonty Industries itself has, according to its own statements, commenced production in South Korea in December and is simultaneously working on developing the first US tungsten mine in a decade. Part of the South Korean production is already designated for Pennsylvania, where the material will be used in ammunition. This demonstrates how closely the tungsten market has now become linked with security policy issues.
The—still—unlisted tungsten company Pure Tungsten is moving closer to its planned production start with the historic Ssangjon Mine in South Korea, according to its own statements. Pure Tungsten is planning an IPO in Canada in the first half of 2026, and the restart of the company’s Ssangjon Mine in South Korea is also expected to occur soon, with the first delivery of tungsten concentrate scheduled for June 2026.
Whether tungsten prices will stabilize at the current level or rise further remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that tungsten currently ranks among those critical raw materials where supply, defense demand, and geopolitical rivalry intersect most directly. This is precisely what drives the unusual market tightness that has brought the commodity into focus in 2026.
