As of November 6, 2025 by Florian Grummes
After reaching new all-time highs of $4,380 for gold and $54.46 for silver two and a half weeks ago, precious metal prices came under heavy pressure and quickly dropped significantly. Starting from a low of $3,886, the gold price has been consolidating this price decline between $3,930 and $4,030 since the end of October.
The prices are therefore oscillating around the round mark of $4,000. A sustained recovery has so far failed to materialize. At the same time, however, the bears have not been able to gain any ground.
At the same time, the now longest government shutdown in US history is causing increasing nervousness on the financial markets. The US stock markets, which continue to move at record levels, appear significantly overvalued across the board and are essentially only supported by a few large AI stocks. The rest of the market, on the other hand, shows a sideways to downward trend.
At the same time, Bitcoin also came under further pressure and is struggling to stay above the $100,000 mark.
In view of the looming liquidity crisis and the stress in the repo market, the Federal Reserve has pumped 125 billion US dollars into the US banking system within just five days. A massive intervention reminiscent of the crisis management of 2020 and 2008.
On October 31 alone, 29.4 billion US dollars flowed into the market via short-term repo transactions. Officially, this measure serves stability: banks exchange government bonds for cash to avoid liquidity bottlenecks. The timing is critical because bank reserves are at 2.8 trillion US dollars, the lowest level in over four years.
There is more to this silent wave of intervention than preventive crisis management. The US Federal Reserve is struggling with a
What initially looks like a technical adjustment is de facto a return to expansionary monetary policy.
At the FOMC meeting in October, the Fed already lowered the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a new target range of 3.75% to 4.00% and ended the policy of quantitative tightening. Instead, quantitative easing was reactivated – a clear admission that financing conditions on the market had become too restrictive.
However, the trigger lies deeper in the fabric of the global credit markets. The US Treasury has significantly increased its dependence on short-term financing, which is draining liquidity from the system. Banks, funds and foreign investors are increasingly reluctant to buy short-term US debt securities as rising yields undermine confidence. Analysts warn that a “moment of reckoning” could be imminent – the point at which either investors turn their backs on the markets or the Fed will be forced to step in permanently as a buyer of last resort.
In this context, the recent repo push is more than an emergency tool – it is a pre-emptive measure to avoid a systemic failure.
Meanwhile, the Fed is fighting for its credibility.
Its latest Beige Book outlined an economy that could be stalling – a warning signal that accelerated the monetary policy turnaround. The central bank is thus initially focusing on its second mandate: securing employment instead of strictly combating inflation.
This could support the stock market in the short term, even if rising yields are likely to put pressure on valuations again in the long term. The balancing act between price stability and financial flow stabilizes the markets temporarily, but further increases the structural dependence on liquidity programs.
Between Real Assets and Monetary Illusion
How much gold is left to mine? ©Visual Capitalist 2025
However, the room for maneuver is shrinking. The ratio of real economic momentum to monetary policy support is becoming increasingly fragile. And confidence in boundless liquidity is diminishing globally at an accelerating pace.
The global gold quantity – around 187,000 tons mined and another approx. 57,000 tons underground – on the other hand, is a reminder that real values are limited. If all the gold in the world were melted down, it would create a cube with an edge length of just under 23 meters. In contrast, the Fed’s balance sheet total seems to grow without limits. This discrepancy illustrates the risk of circulating liquidity: growing money supplies eventually encounter physical and psychological limits of trust.
Gold and Silver are Trying to Stabilize
Since the new all-time high on October 20 at 4,380 US dollars, volatility on the gold market has exploded. Within five trading days, the gold price lost almost 500 US dollars or -11.3%. In this trading week, however, the selling pressure has lost momentum. After the heavily overheated situation, the correction has cleared the euphoric mood and created a reasonably healthy market base again.
In the best case scenario, the consolidation that has started could turn into a respectable recovery, after all, the long-term bull market is absolutely intact for both gold and the other precious metals. However, the situation is still shaky and further setbacks cannot yet be ruled out.
Silver in US dollars, daily chart from November 06, 2025. ©GOLD.DE
While the oversold daily chart for the gold price does not yet provide a clear picture, an inverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation could develop for the silver price. This bullish bottoming formation would be confirmed with a breakout above 49.30 US dollars.
The calculated price target of approx. 53 US dollars would be below the new silver all-time high of 54.14 US dollars, but the overall chart picture would brighten considerably with such a recovery.
Key Takeaways:
Overall, precious metal prices are currently trying to stabilize after the sharp price slump. However, the macroeconomic situation has hardly changed in the past three weeks.
Rather, the fiat money system is once again reaching its limits and – like a drug addict – is demanding the next liquidity injection. The US Federal Reserve has already reacted quietly and secretly and supplied the markets with fresh money again (125 billion US dollars within five days).
If the gold price succeeds in sustainably overcoming the resistance zone between 4,045 and 4,060 US dollars, the recovery that has begun could gain noticeable momentum. In this case,
However, the whole thing is still on shaky ground and a further downward wave cannot be ruled out. We do not expect a sustainable trend reversal until mid-December.
Florian Grummes
Technical Analyst, Precious Metals Expert
