Although gold rose more sharply in 2025 than most commodities, it lagged behind silver and platinum within the precious metals sector. While gold rose significantly overall during the year, silver and platinum rose by 143% and 137% respectively, according to a recent market report by BMI (Fitch Solutions). This put silver in the spotlight alongside gold – driven by a mixture of industrial demand and investor interest.
In the course of 2025, strong industrial and retail demand pushed the price of silver upwards, bringing quotations temporarily towards USD 80 per ounce – a range that was thus reached for the first time – silver is now even trading at almost USD 90 per ounce. According to BMI, inflows into silver ETFs have also increased significantly. At the same time, demand from applications such as solar modules and electric vehicles has narrowed the physical market “to an unprecedented extent”. Against this backdrop, BMI expects the global silver deficit to continue in 2026, mainly because higher investment demand is expected.
Silver: Interest rate environment and relative value versus gold as drivers
BMI argues that silver and platinum, as non-interest-bearing assets, have benefited from interest rate cuts. At the same time, the high gold price has triggered an indirect effect: in portfolios, in jewellery applications and in various industrial applications, silver and platinum appear “cheaper” in relation to gold. For silver, demand is not limited to a single area, but is fuelled by both investors and industry – a combination that can make the market more sensitive if flows or inventories shift.
Despite the fundamentally positive demand outlook, the analysts emphasise the pronounced volatility. BMI points out that the positioning of non-commercial speculators can strongly influence price movements. Unlike gold, demand from central banks – a key factor for the gold price – does not play a significant role for silver. According to the report, this means for price formation: silver reacts particularly strongly to short-term market mechanics, while a stabilising demand block like gold is lacking.
Silver inventories under pressure: Export brake from China and limited impulses from Mexico
BMI sees additional pressure on the supply and logistics side. Since 1 January, Beijing has restricted the export of physical silver to the world market. This has put additional pressure on inventories in important storage locations such as London and Zurich. BMI emphasises that the measures have also temporarily driven up leasing rates for silver – to over 8% (converted to a one-month term). Such movements are regarded as an indication that metal is more difficult to obtain in the physical market in the short term and that bottlenecks in financing and delivery are becoming more noticeable.
BMI also does not expect any significant additional volumes from Mexico, the world’s largest silver producer, in 2026. The report cites declining ore grades and a partial shutdown at Fresnillo’s San Julián mine as reasons. Taken together, these points suggest to the analysts that supply can only react to higher prices to a limited extent in the short term – an environment in which silver remains vulnerable to strong fluctuations as soon as demand and inventory movements overlap.
Platinum: Price rally after EU decision – BMI does not see fundamentals as support
BMI assesses the situation for platinum to be significantly more critical. In the analysts’ view, the currently elevated price level for platinum is not justified by the fundamentals. Platinum futures are now trading at over USD 2,000 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after the EU postponed the ban on new registrations for vehicles with combustion engines (ICE) originally planned for 2035. As such vehicles require platinum-intensive catalytic converters, the decision was interpreted on the market as price-driving.
BMI describes the immediate reaction as extraordinary: the announcement on 16 December triggered a 31% rally that drove the platinum price to an all-time high of USD 2,471 per ounce by 26 December. At the same time, the report points to the downside of the strong movement: on 29 December, there was an almost 15% slump – the biggest daily decline since August 2001. Although prices recovered within a week, BMI maintains its assessment that the price increase is not covered to this extent by supply and demand.
For 2026, BMI expects only a moderate increase in industrial platinum demand. In addition, higher recycling rates could stabilise part of the supply side – even if production from platinum mines in South Africa declines. Overall, BMI paints a picture in which silver remains structurally tight due to continued deficits and logistical bottlenecks, while platinum, after the strong rally, could depend more on whether the fundamentals actually move towards sustainably higher demand.
