The gold price faltered somewhat on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates, but gave a mixed outlook for its further course in 2026. While gold fell slightly near a weekly high, only to recover somewhat, silver continued its impressive rally and marked an all-time high of more than 62 US dollars per ounce in early European trading!
Gold in wait-and-see mode after Fed decision
The trigger for the continuation of the consolidation in the gold price was the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, but the decision was unusually close, and a significant portion of the FOMC spoke out against further easing steps. Overall, the central bank is signaling that it wants to act more cautiously and data-dependently in the future.
Market observers such as Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, point out that this mixed message is slowing gold down in the short term. The Fed has made it clear that further rate cuts could be “few and far between” unless both the labor market and inflation convincingly move towards the target corridor. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also avoided giving clear indications of the timing of further steps.
For gold, this environment initially means a phase of reorientation. Although non-interest-bearing investments such as gold typically benefit from falling key interest rates because the opportunity costs decrease. However, as long as it is unclear how aggressively the Fed will actually ease in 2026, many institutional investors will remain cautious for the time being. The focus is now on the upcoming US economic data – in particular labor market and inflation figures for November as well as the detailed GDP estimate for the third quarter.
Silver: Record hunt despite monetary policy uncertainty
While gold is taking a breather after the Fed meeting, silver is largely unimpressed. The price of silver has apparently developed its own dynamic in recent months, partially breaking the traditional link to the gold price. Since gold marked its record high on October 20, the precious metal has moved more sideways, while silver has continued to rise by double digits.
From the perspective of many market participants, the silver rally is the result of a “perfect storm”:
- Strong industrial demand, especially from the electronics, solar and battery industries,
- Declining inventories in important trading centers and
- the classification of silver on the US list of critical minerals, which underlines the strategic importance of the metal once again.
Ilya Spivak, Head of Global Macro at Tastylive, sums it up: Silver has recently paid little attention to external factors and “has simply continued to run on its own.” From a technical perspective, Spivak sees the next important price level on the way towards 64 US dollars per ounce. Whether and when this area is reached depends not only on the further development of gold, but also on the continuing flow dynamics in silver ETFs and physical demand.
The significant increase in silver is also reflected in the gold-silver ratio, which recently fell to around 69 – the lowest level since the summer of 2021. This means that silver has clearly outperformed gold this year.
For the moment, the market is signaling: Gold is consolidating after a strong upward movement and is waiting for new impetus from monetary policy and macroeconomics, while silver is continuing its independent record rally – with the prospect of further, possibly turbulent movements in the coming weeks.
