After a parabolic rise at the start of the year, the silver price has entered a consolidation phase, according to an ETF provider. From the perspective of long-term market participants, however, this does not necessarily mean that the overarching bullish case has been broken.
Experts at Amplify ETFs said that sentiment among retail investors appears stable despite the recent increase in volatility—and that the market structure for silver continues to rest on two key pillars: industrial demand alongside constrained supply, and investment demand driven by safe-haven considerations and de-dollarisation trends.
The analysts describe the current picture as a phase of “price discovery” following a very rapid move. While inflows into related products have recently slowed somewhat, there is no sign of a sentiment break or “panic” among retail investors. For market observers, this assessment is noteworthy because after sharp swings the question often arises as to whether momentum buyers are leaving the market—or whether pullbacks are instead being used as an opportunity to adjust positions.
Amplify ETFs: Retail investors remain calm—buyers stepped in on the pullback
Noteworthy is the indication that during the sharp price decline in the previous month, buyers at Amplify became active already in the first leg down. At the same time, more two-way trading developed around the $70-per-ounce level—an environment in which both buying and selling increase. Overall, however, flows have remained positive year to date.
The experts place this behaviour in a pattern silver has shown more frequently in the past: in the early stages of a precious-metals rally, the metal often initially lags behind its big brother gold, but can then catch up sharply in a short period of time. They point to the strong rise in January, when silver advanced to all-time highs during the move. This once again highlights the well-known characteristic that silver tends toward accelerated moves in trend phases—both upward and downward.
Silver price: Supply/demand thesis remains—but the market is looking for a new foundation
Despite the generally constructive tone, Amplify expects a phase of base-building rather than another immediate breakout in the near term. The analysts say a new “floor” may be forming and place it in the $70 to $80 per ounce range. Within this band, the silver price could initially move sideways as speculative excesses cool and the market finds a new equilibrium.
Amplify sees the structural backdrop as two-pronged. On the one hand is industrial use of silver, which, in its view, coincides with a structural supply deficit. On the other hand, investment demand remains a factor—especially when geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for “real assets” as a safe-haven anchor. In the experts’ view, this combination makes it plausible that the overarching bullish case remains intact, even if the market goes through longer sideways phases in between.
This fits with the picture that silver recently regained tailwinds as geopolitical tensions strengthened safe-haven demand. At present, an ounce is already costing more than $89 per ounce again. This shows how quickly the market can re-ignite in stress phases, even if the broader move had previously shifted into consolidation.
Looking ahead: Fed policy and the options market as the pace-setters for the next impulse
For the coming months, Amplify identifies US monetary policy as the decisive pace-setter. The silver price remains—like other precious metals—sensitive to expectations for rate moves, real yields and the US dollar. They note that market expectations had at times shifted toward a “dovish” (more accommodative) stance. More recently, however, central bank representatives have also signalled the possibility of rate hikes in light of robust economic data. This tension could lead markets to “muddle along” at first and remain stuck in a trading range.
The base case: Summer could be characterised by a range-bound move. A “next leg” higher is not ruled out—on the contrary, the analysts suggest there could “at some point” be another upward wave—but they place such a move more in the second half of the year, if it materialises.
As an additional signal, Amplify cites positioning in the derivatives market: open interest in the options market remains skewed toward calls (bets on rising prices). This suggests that, despite the recent consolidation, market participants are still preparing for a potential upside scenario. At the same time, this observation aligns with the view that the market first needs price discovery and the unwinding of speculative overhangs before a new trend move can sustainably gain momentum.
After the rapid rise, the silver price therefore no longer appears to be in pure acceleration mode, but rather in a phase of reorganisation—yet the demand arguments and investor positioning, in Amplify ETFs’ view, suggest that silver continues to be watched closely and that macro factors, especially the Federal Reserve, are likely to be decisive for the next directional impulse.
