Gold Imports in Asia Remain Strong, Platinum Supply Tight
Silver is once again in the spotlight: According to Heraeus’ latest precious metals update, a noticeable inventory drawdown is significantly contributing to the silver rally. Concurrently, gold imports in China and India continue to show strength despite record prices, while the platinum market tightens further due to scarce availability. This combination suggests a scenario where declining real interest rates, robust physical demand, and limited freely available inventories are driving precious metal prices upward.
Silver: LBMA Inventory Drawdown, Tight “Registered” Supply on COMEX
Silver is in focus. Heraeus reports that futures prices recently rose above the $46 per ounce mark – a level near a 14-year high. The scarcity of immediately available metal is considered a key driver. London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventories fell by 7.5% year-on-year in August 2025 to 792 million ounces, a multi-year low. Concurrently, significant quantities have shifted towards the US futures exchange COMEX, not least against the backdrop of potential tariffs.
While COMEX silver inventories total over 500 million ounces according to Heraeus, the crucial factor is the freely deliverable portion (“registered”). This recently stood at 193 million ounces, representing approximately 36% of total inventories. A low “registered” buffer can lead to short-term bottlenecks during periods of increased demand – and drive up the risk premium in the market.
There is also movement on the investor side: Global silver ETF holdings increased by 10 million ounces last week to 820 million ounces. However, this level remains clearly below the record of 1,021 million ounces (February 2021). From an investor perspective, the momentum is present, but not yet as pronounced as in previous peak phases. In the spot market, silver recently traded at approximately $46.69 per ounce – a gain of almost 1.4% on a daily basis.
Gold: Record Prices Meet Robust Demand from China and India
Also, gold remains in motion. Following a brief consolidation after the latest 25 basis point US interest rate cut, the spot price once again reached an all-time high of $3,831.45 per ounce and shortly thereafter traded at $3,827.71 (+1.8% intraday). Concurrently, physical demand in Asia persists. For August, data indicates non-monetary gold imports of over 100 tons – only slightly below the previous month.
The trade axis via Switzerland is striking: Gold deliveries to the People’s Republic jumped from 9.9 tons in July to 35.0 tons in August, with a value of more than $3 billion. Exports to India also remained high (13.5 → 15.2 tons). Heraeus attributes this, among other factors, to inventory building by the jewelry industry ahead of the festival season – with Diwali in October as a seasonal peak.
The investor base further supports the market. Non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures rose to 26.6 million ounces – the highest level since February, albeit below the September 2024 level (31.5 million ounces). Concurrently, global gold ETF holdings climbed to 96.1 million ounces. However, there is still room to reach the historical high of 111 million ounces (October 2020).
Macro Drivers: US Interest Rates and Real Yields as Tailwinds for Precious Metals
On the macroeconomic front, monetary policy signals have recently been in focus. Following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate move, Fed Funds futures priced in four more cuts by July of next year. In contrast, according to Heraeus, members of the Fed committee anticipate three additional steps by the end of 2026. Regardless of the exact path length, the direction points to further declining key interest rates. If inflation remains sticky, real interest rates are likely to fall – an environment that historically supports gold and silver. For investors and producers, this means that price fluctuations will increasingly be driven by interest rate and inflation data, while physical flows (imports, inventories) signal short-term bottlenecks or easing.
Platinum: Scarce Availability Keeps Price above the $1,500 Mark
Another look is at platinum (Pt). The price recently surpassed the $1,500 per ounce mark, reaching a new annual high – above the 2014 high ($1,519). Heraeus points to persistently elevated leasing rates, which, while below July’s extreme levels, reflect the tight market situation. On the supply side, production in South Africa appears to be back to normal levels. However, this has not yet sufficiently eased the situation; only higher exports could improve liquidity over time. In the short term, analysts see sustained upward momentum – an indication that the balance between physical availability and demand remains sensitive.
The interplay of a structurally tighter silver supply in the freely deliverable segment, near-record gold prices with high Asian demand, and a persistently tight platinum market currently characterizes the precious metals spectrum. For market participants, three key metrics therefore remain central: the development of LBMA and COMEX inventories (especially “registered” silver), the physical import data of major consuming countries, and the trajectory of US interest rates and thus real yields.
