As of: 2025-12-11 by Florian Grummes
For years, silver enthusiasts were dismissed as crackpots. Now the time has finally come: The price of silver is soaring and outperforming all other asset classes. The decisive breakout above the 45-year resistance at $50 marks a fundamental and, above all, psychological turning point.
Silver price exploded
After an initial high at $54.48 on October 17 and a sharp pullback to $45.55, the bulls have been firmly in control for over six weeks. The silver price exploded from $45.55 on October 28, rising by a sensational 38 percent. All resistances were overrun, and silver prices recently soared to a new all-time high of $62.89.
The gold price, on the other hand, is not keeping pace with this brilliant price development, but is still in a tough consolidation at a high level around and above $4,200.
The US Federal Reserve actually provided a perfect template for the gold price yesterday.
With the start of T-Bill purchases of around $40 billion per month, the Fed is sending a clear signal: The phase of quantitative tightening is turning into a phase of hidden balance sheet expansion. This type of “cash QE” has a double bullish effect on silver – it reduces the real financing pressure in the system and at the same time weakens confidence in the purchasing power of the US dollar.
At the same time, the nominal interest rate level remains high enough to make bond yields appear attractive, but real yields, combined with smoldering inflation risks, are pushing investors into scarce tangible assets. Silver benefits more than gold in this constellation because it is perceived both as a monetary inflation hedge and as an industrial bottleneck commodity.
Silver Demand – Energy Transition as Turbo
On the demand side, silver has become the “bottleneck metal” of the energy transition, moving away from being just an investment metal. Forecasts suggest that industrial silver demand – primarily from solar, e-mobility and electronics – could grow by double-digit percentages again in 2025.
While gold only derives around 10% of its demand from industry, the figure for silver is already close to 60% – and rising. If solar and electronics capacities continue to be expanded aggressively, industry could absorb a large proportion of total mine production by the mid-2030s, meaning that investors will only be able to “buy in” physically at higher prices.
Silver Supply – Structural Deficit and Thin Inventories
On the supply side, however, silver mine production has been stagnating for years. According to industry analyses, 2024 was already the fourth year in a row with a supply deficit because
China – From Supplier to Gatekeeper
In addition, China will stop its silver exports from January 2026 through strict licenses, after record outflows of around 660 tons in October. This measure acts as a supply squeeze for the West and shifts the value chain to China: raw silver remains in the country, while refined products are exported. For western industries – especially solar, automotive, electronics and defense – this means higher input costs, longer supply chain risks and, in the medium term, a reassessment of the metal as a “critical infrastructure resource.”
China produces about 15% of the world’s silver, but absorbs more than half of industrial demand, mainly through photovoltaics, electronics and the export of finished goods. Since the supply side has been stagnating for years, even moderate additional buying waves in this physically tight market – for example through ETFs or tactical allocations by institutional investors – can trigger significant price jumps.
Silver – Next Price Target Above $70
Silver in US dollars, daily chart from December 11, 2025. ©GOLD.DE
Although the price of silver had already risen spectacularly this year from its marked low of $28.31 at the beginning of April to $54.48 without any significant pullbacks, the sustained breakout above $54.48 in recent weeks ignited an even more impressive fireworks display. The price of silver is now chasing almost vertically upwards through the chart technically undefined space with high volume. A new all-time high for silver was reached today.
The upper Bollinger band is currently opening up space to $63.49, which roughly corresponds to the price target from the last cup-and-handle formation. Above that, the next psychological resistance lurks around $70, before a classic “Measured Move” starting from the low at $48.63 would be completed with a price target of around $72. These short-term price projections are all realistic and achievable in the coming weeks.
Afterwards, we would like to give the overheated silver price a breather, even if a breakthrough to approx. $100 is also not out of the question.
Conclusion: Silver – Unstoppable
After years of stagnation, the price of silver experienced a historic surge in 2025, reaching a new all-time high of $62.89. The breakout above $50 marked the psychological turning point, fueled by liquidity measures by the Fed and inflation concerns. Driven by the energy transition, industrial demand is rising sharply, while supply is stagnating and China is drastically restricting its silver exports.
From a chart perspective, prices between $70 and $72 are already realistic in the short term, and in the long term we continue to expect silver prices well beyond $100.
Overall, precious metals remain the only stable anchors and lifeboats in an extremely difficult environment.
Florian Grummes
Technical Analyst, Precious Metals Expert
