As of: February 13, 2026, by Florian Grummes
After precious metal prices recovered from the crash at the turn of the month over the past two weeks amid sometimes heavy fluctuations, the gold price moved predominantly sideways this trading week. Yesterday late afternoon, however, there was an abrupt slump: gold lost around $200 and fell to a daily low of $4,878. Silver even plunged by more than 10% to $73.93.
Towards the evening, in the subsequent Asian trading and on Friday morning, buyers returned to the market back, so that the gold price was quoted at around $4,975 shortly before the end of the week. This keeps the psychologically important $5,000 mark within reach.
Whether the recovery movement since the crash low at $4,400 already ended with yesterday’s sharp setback, or whether the setback has already been weathered, is currently still unclear. Many market participants expect more significant setbacks in the run-up to next week’s Chinese New Year holidays due to the lack of physical demand. However, experience shows that such “consensus trades” often turn out differently than expected. Nevertheless, caution and attention are advised for the coming week, as significant price setbacks could even provide a buying opportunity.
Structure Instead of Panic
Despite the recent turbulence, longer-term market technicals for gold continue to signal a clearly constructive or bullish trend. After the strong price increases and high volatility, a consolidation phase is completely normal and healthy, as markets rarely rise in a straight line, but move in impulses and intermediate corrections. The decisive factor is that the fundamental framework conditions have hardly changed so far.
Global inflation remains above central bank targets, supporting the attractiveness of real assets like gold. At the same time, central banks—led by the BRICS nations—continue to expand their gold reserves to reduce dependence on the US dollar and underpin their currencies. In parallel, many investors’ trust in pure paper currencies and unsecured debt promises is fading, which further increases the strategic importance of precious metals.
Against this background, the recent swings appear more as an expression of a liquidity and sentiment driven market environment than as a sign of a structural break in the upward trend. As long as the aforementioned fundamental drivers remain intact, there is much to suggest interpreting the current volatility as part of a larger consolidation phase within an overarching bull market—and not as its end.
Silver: Volatility with an Amplifier
Shanghai Silver Premiums, from February 13, 2026. ©Inproved
As is so often the case, silver shows disproportionate reactions. After speculative overheating on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where prices of over 38,000 yuan per kilogram were achieved, a literal “long squeeze” wave occurred. Many traders had to close positions hastily, putting prices under massive pressure. At the same time, physical silver premiums are rising significantly again ahead of the Chinese New Year—a sign that real physical demand remains robust.
China’s Role in the Global Precious Metals Market
Silver inventories at the SHFE and SGE, from February 13, 2026. ©Inproved
The upcoming nine-day closure of the Shanghai metal exchanges starting February 15 highlights China’s central role in physical metal trading. Since more physical gold is traded in Shanghai than in all Western markets combined, such a break regularly leads to price spikes or slumps in the paper markets in London and New York. Historically, price declines of 5 to 12 percent have occurred during comparable interruptions—followed by strong rebounds as soon as physical trading resumes in China.
In any case, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 3.7 tons to 353 tons this week, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) recorded dramatic outflows of 43 tons to just 450.5 tons. Overall, the combined silver inventories of both exchanges currently total 804 tons or 25.9 million ounces—a clear signal of sustained physical demand despite the price correction.
A Global Currency and Trust Problem
Yesterday’s slump in precious metal prices reflects less a direct continuation of the correction and is instead based on a tense global liquidity situation. Hedge funds and speculative traders had to reduce risky or leveraged positions to meet margin calls—a classic sign of “forced liquidation.”
At the same time, China is pursuing a long-term strategy with its gold accumulation and the appreciation of the yuan as a global reserve currency, which will structurally change the international monetary system.
Even if the markets currently seem chaotic, gold remains the decisive indicator of trust in the financial system. The market structure shows no fundamental signal of weakness; rather, the current consolidation offers an opportunity to remain calm and view the movements as a breather within the larger trend.
Silver, as usual, exaggerates in both directions, but in the long term, it follows the path of gold.
Silver – Crash After 156% Rally, Interesting Again Below $70
Silver in US Dollars, daily chart from February 13, 2026. ©GOLD.DE
With the historic breakout above the $50 mark in October of last year, impressive upward momentum began in the silver market. Within just three months, the price rose from $45.51 to a silver all-time high of $116.86—an increase of over 156%.
Starting from this new all-time high, however, two violent correction waves occurred from the end of January, which pushed the silver price back to $64.04 in no time by February 6 (-47.3%). This erased more than half of the entire record rally, which began at $11.03 in March 2020, within just one week.
The technical picture is naturally significantly damaged after this crash setback. Although the silver price was able to recover noticeably at times during the week and rise to the $86.30 mark, prices are trading significantly lower again at around $78.50 as the end of the week approaches following yesterday’s price slide.
So far, the still rapidly rising 50-day line ($79.84) has cushioned the attacks of the bears and caught the price. However, the lower Bollinger Band ($64.57) has turned downwards and could open up additional downside potential for the bears in the near future.
In the “worst-case” scenario, a return to the historic breakout zone in the range of around $50 would therefore be conceivable in the coming months. However, as long as the gold price can clearly hold its ground above $4,500, such deep price targets currently appear rather unrealistic.
We would first wait attentively for the course of the coming week, because without physical trading in China, significant price fluctuations are indeed possible. Despite the still rather high premiums, we consider physical purchases below $70 to be interesting.
Conclusion: Silver – Consolidation After Record Rally & Crash
The current market situation for precious metals is characterized by high volatility, a clear reversal signal in the silver market, and the upcoming market closure in China. However, the overarching bullish structure is intact.
Therefore, the gold price should once again assume its leading function as a safe haven. Above the crash lows around $4,400, the correction is likely to play out more sideways and over time.
It is quite possible that it will simply go back and forth around the round $5,000 mark for a while until market participants have become accustomed to the new price level. The silver price, with its typical leverage and dramatic swings, will likely need a while longer to calm down after this rollercoaster ride.
Florian Grummes
Technical Analyst, Precious Metals Expert
