Since February 28, 2026, the war in the Middle East has kept the world in suspense. Triggered by large-scale US and Israeli attacks on Iran, various sources report that between approximately 1,500 and over 6,000 people have lost their lives, with the vast majority of casualties recorded on the Iranian side.
For three weeks, we have been urgently warning of the global consequences of this conflict. Nevertheless, a large part of the Western mainstream continues to believe in the absurd promises of US President Trump. The reality is different: The USA lacks a clear exit strategy; instead, they have led the world to the edge of the abyss. While sources from the White House and the military report “off-ramps” and de-escalation options, the official line remains vague—characterized by contradictory signals between victory rhetoric, threats of escalation, and growing economic and political pressure.
Financial markets in free fall – only oil holds its ground
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks on refineries and oil and LNG facilities, have plunged global energy and fuel markets into a deep crisis. However, it was only this trading week that the war hit the financial markets in full: Worldwide, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies were sold off massively, with crashes occurring in many places. Only oil remained stable—just under 100 US dollars per barrel in the West, and already 150 US dollars in Dubai. In more and more countries, governments are resorting to drastic measures: gasoline and diesel are being rationed, sales limited, and flights canceled due to a lack of kerosene or high prices.
Rationing and flight cancellations – Asia particularly affected
In the last three weeks, states in South and Southeast Asia in particular have introduced rationing and sales restrictions: Bangladesh has a daily limit of 10–15 liters per vehicle, Sri Lanka uses a QR code system with weekly quotas, and Pakistan has implemented a four-day week, mandatory working from home, and gas station rationing. Myanmar is suffering from supply bottlenecks and transport problems, while India, Egypt, and Kenya are locally restricting and prioritizing the sale of cooking gas and fuels.
The kerosene shortage is hitting air traffic in Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines particularly hard. Vietnam warned of massive flight cancellations starting in April due to a lack of imports from China and Thailand. Airlines are also reacting: SAS is canceling over 1,000 flights, while Air France-KLM and Air New Zealand are each canceling around 1,100 connections.
Chain reaction – fertilizers, inflation, and looming (hyper-)stagflation
In parallel, global sulfur and fertilizer markets are heavily impacted by supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. The consequences for inflation, bond markets, and the US dollar are severe—and will likely soon dominate monetary policy. With the effective interruption of energy supplies from the Gulf region, the global economy faces a new, sharp inflationary shock that could plunge many economies into recession or depression. At its core, a phase of hyper-stagflation is imminent.
Nevertheless, many investors remain passive—like rabbits in the headlights—hoping for a quick solution. In doing so, they underestimate Iran’s strategic depth, the duration of the crisis, and the numerous domino effects.
Illusion of a quick solution – compromise unlikely
A ceasefire or peace agreement is highly unlikely—not out of stubbornness, but because it has long ceased to be about oil, nuclear issues, or territory. The USA and Iran are struggling for sovereignty over the interpretation of reality itself. One side will prevail, the other will disappear—there is no middle ground.
At the same time, there is effectively no negotiating partner in Iran: the leadership has been largely wiped out by targeted attacks, including Ali Khamenei at the start of the war and, most recently, Ali Larijani, the de facto head of government during the war, who died in an Israeli airstrike on March 17, 2026. As the central hub for security and war decisions, he was the most influential actor after Khamenei’s death. His elimination has further fragmented the regime, massively weakened its decision-making capacity, and created a power vacuum that currently makes negotiations almost impossible.
Systemic weakness of the West and global dependencies
The complete securing of the Strait of Hormuz is effectively impossible. Since 2022, warfare has fundamentally changed: Inexpensive drones and missiles give smaller states enormous asymmetrical strike power. Thus, despite air superiority, Iran was able to continue using ballistic missiles, for example in the attack on the largest LNG facility. Systems like Shahed drones are cheap and quickly produced, but defending against them is extremely costly.
At the same time, the structural weakness of the West is revealed: without China, the reconstruction of strategic armament stocks is hardly possible. China dominates 65–70% of the extraction and 85–90% of the processing of critical resources such as rare earths. If the conflict continues, massive systemic shocks and a further weakened West are imminent.
The true shock – The next global lockdown
The real danger lies not in the war itself, but in its global consequences for everyday life. An oil price above 150 US dollars per barrel triggers a chain reaction: flights are canceled, transport costs explode, and consumer goods become more expensive. Fertilizers and raw materials become scarce, and food prices rise sharply. More and more states are rationing energy—initially gradually, then officially.
What begins as a “temporary energy restriction” quickly resembles pandemic measures: less travel, more working from home. But this time, it is about energy supply and system stability. De facto, the largest global lockdown since COVID-19 is emerging—without being named as such: a state of emergency with gradually restricted mobility, consumption, and freedom, justified by the protection of the community.
Commodity supercycle confirmed
Stocks vs. Commodities since 1971, as of March 18, 2026. © Incrementum AG
Against this background, precious metals are taking a back seat in the short term. Nevertheless, gold, silver, and platinum remain proven protection against the coming wave of inflation—a role they have always confirmed in geopolitical and monetary crises. The new commodity supercycle has finally manifested through the Iran war: in the medium to long term, precious and industrial metals, rare earths, oil, gas, uranium, and agricultural assets are likely to rise significantly.
In the short term, however, caution is advised: a possible “2008 on steroids” scenario can continue to weigh on the markets, so that precious metals may also fall sharply temporarily. Silver in particular, as an interface between precious and industrial metals, reacts sensitively to macroeconomic tensions, inflation, and currency trends—and has already lost around 32% since the start of the war.
Silver – Technical chart outlook continues to darken
Silver in US dollars, daily chart from March 21, 2026. ©GOLD.DE
Our warning of a silver crash two weeks ago, as well as our oil price forecast four weeks ago, have proven to be absolutely accurate. From its recovery high at 96.42 US dollars, the silver price has crashed dramatically to 65.48 US dollars within just under three weeks—a decline of over 30 percent in a very short time. Although the first significant correction low from February 5 at 64.06 US dollars has not yet been breached, the chart pattern has since darkened significantly.
The oil price, on the other hand, has reached both of our price targets at 90 and 120 US dollars in a very short time and is in a new upward trend. After the silver price failed to sustainably reclaim its 50-day line (86.30 US dollars) in recent weeks, the price was pushed down hard this week. The downward avalanche brought the lowest weekly closing price in three months. Furthermore, the bears are pushing the Bollinger Band open to the downside, and silver prices are already sliding south as if on a railing. The next logical target, reachable in just a few days or weeks, is now the rising 200-day line (57.18 US dollars). Currently, it is only about 10 US dollars away. Just below that, the former resistance zone around 50 US dollars forms very strong support. Accordingly, we expect a bottom for the silver price correction in the range between approx. 50 and 55 US dollars, from where the next upward wave or at least a major recovery movement should start.
However, should the silver price want to repeat the same correction distance as from the new all-time high at 121.67 US dollars down to 64.04 US dollars, the final bottom would only be expected in the range between 38 and 42 US dollars! The actual extent of the turmoil in the financial markets will be decided by how quickly and decisively central banks come to the aid of collapsing markets and economies in the coming weeks. Precious metal prices are usually among the first assets to react positively to new floods of liquidity and money-printing orgies—often with a significant lead over stocks or other risk assets. Accordingly, investors should initially continue to exercise restraint, remain patient, and, above all, build up or maintain sufficient liquidity reserves. This is the only way to remain capable of acting in this crisis.
Conclusion: Silver – 2008 times ten
We would like to provide positive news two weeks before Easter, but three weeks after the start of the war (February 28, 2026), a grim, realistic picture emerges: the conflict in the Middle East, triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran, has claimed thousands of victims, largely eliminated the leadership in Tehran, and made negotiations effectively impossible.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and massive attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region have triggered a global energy crisis. Refineries, gas plants, LNG complexes, and ports in Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Israel, and partly Bahrain and Oman have been heavily hit or paralyzed. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has almost come to a standstill, oil and gas prices are exploding, and energy supplies are at risk worldwide. At the same time, stock, commodity, precious metal, and crypto markets are crashing, while in South and Southeast Asia, rationing, four-day weeks, and flight cancellations characterize everyday life. Hyper-stagflation, food price shocks, and a silent global lockdown loom—a quick compromise is not in sight.
At the same time, the war confirms the new commodity supercycle: precious metals (gold, silver, platinum) as well as oil, gas, rare earths, and agricultural assets are likely to rise sharply in the medium term as soon as central banks take countermeasures. In the short term, however, caution is advised: silver has lost over 30%, remains technically weak on the charts, and could fall further to 50–55 US dollars. Investors should maintain liquidity, stay patient, and wait for the turning point instead of reacting in panic.
