As of: March 6, 2026 by Florian Grummes
On February 28, the USA and Israel launched Operation “Epic Fury”. With over 2,000 targeted attacks on the Iranian nuclear program, missile arsenals, Revolutionary Guard command centers, and Tehran, it is considered the most complex air operation in history. In the first wave, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, was also killed. In response, Iran attacked numerous targets with drones and missiles in Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Cyprus – in close proximity to NATO.
Geopolitics as a Price Driver
Strait of Hormuz, March 5, 2026. © Giacomo Prandelli
The attack on Iran and its retaliatory strikes have also led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As insurers no longer cover transport, an insurance collapse occurred. This triggered a chain reaction in the energy markets, causing oil prices to rise by more than 28%. Crude oil has become the new “fever thermometer”.
Approximately 14.2 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, 89% of which flows to Asia – a blockade thus primarily endangers Asia’s energy security, especially China’s. And with about 20% of global oil trade flowing through the strait near Hormuz, the blockade has further immediate consequences: energy prices rise, transport routes become risky – and the inflationary environment intensifies. Within a few days, the Middle East escalated into the epicenter of a global and highly complex power conflict, ultimately about the supremacy between the USA and China.
Gold Trade in Dubai in a Bind
Dubai International Airport, March 1, 2026. © Altaf Qadri/AP Photo
The precious metals markets had already gradually priced in the outbreak of war with strong price increases in the previous week and opened on Monday morning with a significant price jump upwards. The silver price rose to $96.42 and gold to $5,419.
However, already on Tuesday, a massive risk-off movement began in global financial markets. Gold and silver also came under strong selling pressure. Gold temporarily fell back below $5,000. Silver slipped to below $78.
While the global situation escalates, an unusual price anomaly is occurring in the gold market in Dubai. Normally, the metropolis is considered the central hub for physical gold trading, as approximately 20 to 30% of global physical gold trade is handled through Dubai annually.
However, since the beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, trade has stalled. Iranian attacks on the UAE, flight cancellations, blocked routes, and exploding insurance premiums make the export of bars and coins difficult. Traders are sitting on inventories that they are offering at up to a $30 discount per ounce below the London spot price. This is a clear sign of liquidity problems in the physical market. Investors and buyers are avoiding new orders, as delivery times are uncertain and transport costs are difficult to calculate. Paradoxically, the local price in Dubai is falling, even though gold is in demand globally as a safe haven.
The Market’s Reflex: Risk-Off Instead of Rally
Overall, financial markets reacted with a classic “risk-off” movement. Stocks, tech, and crypto slid. Investors instead sought refuge in government bonds and the US dollar. After initial strength, gold and silver are now presenting themselves as rather weak.
In crisis periods like 2008, it was already evident that liquidity bottlenecks can lead to forced sales – even for supposedly “safe” assets. Accordingly, it is not surprising if short-term pressure arises on precious metals, although the dramatic geopolitical escalation promises a significant appreciation in the long term.
In the extremely uncertain environment, it is advisable to act cautiously, wait-and-see, and defensively. Rising margin requirements, volatile transport markets, and the dominance of oil prices are shifting liquidity flows away from precious metals towards energy assets. Nevertheless, physical precious metals remain a must, as does a significantly increased liquidity position. Debt and leverage, however, should be urgently reduced.
As soon as the geopolitical situation stabilizes and central banks have started their printing presses, gold will once again confirm its status as the ultimate store of value. Silver, driven by industrial, defense, and energy demand, is likely to gain more in percentage terms.
Silver – A Global Crash Looms
Silver in US Dollars, Daily Chart from March 6, 2026. © GOLD.DE
The silver price continues its rollercoaster ride. After the sensational rally to a new all-time high of $121.64, a brutal collapse followed to $64.04 (-47.3%). From this low, silver prices recovered within three weeks to $96.42. However, this trading week saw silver prices fall by as much as -19.15% to $77.96 again.
This raises the first question: Did the recovery already end last Monday at $96.42? If the risk-off movement due to the Iran war continues and intensifies in the financial markets (which we expect), then the silver price is likely to come under further pressure.
Which brings us to the second question: Will the ongoing correction in the silver market since the end of January bring a new low, or could the correction/consolidation primarily play out sideways, as in the last two years?
The probability of a crash in financial markets is increasing daily. We fear that the silver price will be severely impacted in a risk-off phase with liquidity bottlenecks. While there is still a lot of room until the low of $64, we cannot rule out a sell-off into the $50 to $65 range.
In any case, the technical picture has further deteriorated with Monday’s lower high. We can therefore only urgently warn against caution and restraint.
Those who build up sufficient liquidity reserves now will likely be able to buy at favorable prices in the coming weeks or months.
Conclusion: Silver – A Global Crash Looms
The geopolitical development is fatal. We fear a conflagration and can only hope that reason will prevail. Otherwise, World War 3 threatens!
WTI and Brent Oil, from March 6, 2026. © Holger Zschäpitz
Precious metals are usually very strong in the run-up to military conflicts, but as soon as the cannons roar, the focus shifts to the energy markets and precious metals correct. We pointed out in good time two weeks ago that oil prices had become far too cheap compared to gold. We fear that oil prices will now target our price objectives of $90 and $120.
In the best case, the gold price will continue to hover around the $5,000 mark, which should also support the silver price. If, however, a crash occurs in the financial markets, everything will be sold off. Oil, energy, and agricultural markets, however, could experience adventurous price increases.
