According to a recent report by the World Nuclear Association (WNA), demand for uranium for nuclear reactors is expected to rise by approximately 30% in the next five years, as more countries utilize nuclear power for their CO2 neutrality goals. This necessitates new uranium mines and the recommissioning of existing facilities; concerns about energy security and geopolitical factors are also fueling interest in nuclear energy.
According to the WNA, demand for uranium as nuclear fuel will increase by 28% by 2030 and will double to over 150,000 tonnes by 2040. In 2024, demand was 67,000 tonnes.
Uranium Mine Supply Only Sufficient in the Short Term
In the short term, mine supply is sufficient, but shortages could occur after 2030, as it currently takes ten to 20 years from the discovery of a uranium resource to production. Therefore, accelerated development of new projects is already necessary in the current decade.
At the end of June, global nuclear energy capacity stood at 398 gigawatts electric (GWe), with an additional 71 GWe under construction. The report anticipates a capacity increase of 13% by 2030 and 87% by 2040, reaching 746 GWe. Countries with phase-out strategies or moratoriums are re-evaluating their long-term strategies and considering reintroducing nuclear power as part of their energy mix. Small modular reactors, being simpler and cheaper to build, are likely to further fuel demand, but currently play only a minor role.
Uranium production has recovered: From 2022 to 2024, it increased by 22% to 60,213 tonnes. Production is expected to continue to increase and, together with material from the secondary market (e.g., enrichment tails), will cover the short-term demand of existing reactors. However, in the coming decade, the WNA anticipates a halving of production from existing mines; new projects and recommissioning are therefore necessary. Furthermore, since the market disruption caused by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, there has been an increased need for enrichment capacities, according to the WNA report.
