According to a team of researchers led by geologist Adam Simon from the University of Michigan, copper is facing a structural bottleneck: not because the world is running out of copper, but because new production cannot be established quickly enough to meet expected demand.
In a perspective paper published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, the authors examined hurdles standing in the way of expanding copper production—and concluded that without significantly higher prices and faster, more reliable permitting processes, it will be difficult to close the supply gap.
The team’s central thesis is that the price of copper must at least double to provide mining companies with sufficient incentives to develop new mines. Currently, copper is trading at around $13,000 per tonne in the market environment of the paper. However, according to the researchers’ calculations, this price is not sufficient to cover the high upfront costs and risks of large, capital-intensive projects on a broad scale.
Copper demand by 2050: 37 million tonnes “business as usual” – 91.7 million tonnes with full electrification
The authors work with two scenarios for demand development. In the “business as usual” case—i.e., with normal socioeconomic development and further expansion of infrastructure, electricity, heating, cooling, and modern technologies—the team expects an annual demand of around 37 million tonnes of copper by 2050. This compares to a level of approximately 23 million tonnes mined in 2025.
The figure is significantly higher in the scenario where energy supply is completely switched to 100% renewable sources and transport is largely converted to electric vehicles. In that case, according to the authors, demand could rise to 91.7 million tonnes per year. The message behind this: even without the maximum variant of the energy transition, demand will grow considerably, and in the ambitious transformation path, it will nearly quadruple.
In the paper, Simon emphasizes the role of copper as a “key metal” for economic development: it acts as a kind of “connecting artery” for infrastructure, digital applications, as well as power generation, transmission, and storage. Without a noticeable expansion of supply, global development and transformation growth would be difficult to achieve.
Why new copper mines are becoming more expensive—and what that means for the copper price
The researchers derive their assessment of price necessity from cost data. They used industry reports, databases, and confidential data from a commercial bank to calculate the investment and development costs of existing projects worldwide. The result is expressed in “costs per tonne of copper produced annually”—referring to the newly created annual production capacity.
One example from the analysis: the development of a copper mine in Mongolia cost $18,916 per tonne of copper produced annually. For Panama, the figure is $31,318, and for a project in the USA, it is $29,614. Furthermore, the authors refer to 26 copper mines scheduled to go into operation by 2030; on average, their development costs are $22,359 per tonne of copper produced annually.
From such magnitudes, the team concludes that a significantly higher copper price is “almost certainly” necessary if production volumes are to keep pace with demand even in the normal-case scenario. The decisive factor is not just the absolute price, but also its predictability over many years: mining projects are planned and financed over long periods—and therefore require an environment in which investors and operators see sufficient planning security.
Recycling, alternatives, and permits: additional sources help—but do not replace mine construction
In addition to traditional new production, the authors consider other levers. According to the study, recycling could provide about 13.4 million tonnes of copper per year by 2050—which would be roughly one-third of what is needed in the “business as usual” scenario. Furthermore, they mention potential from extracting copper from low-grade rock as well as from the leaching of copper-bearing waste materials from mining; together, these methods could contribute an additional 4 million tonnes per year.
Material substitution is also discussed as a possibility: stainless steel, aluminum, or plastics could partially replace copper in certain applications. However, the researchers point out that this can be associated with trade-offs—for example, if alternative materials cause higher emissions or bring functional disadvantages.
Another central point is permitting practice. Simon and his co-authors argue for faster and more predictable processes without sacrificing environmental and community protection standards. As examples of policy levers, they mention streamlining and simplifying permitting procedures, increasing transparency and liquidity in global markets, improving governance and price discovery, and guaranteed off-take agreements to economically secure capital-intensive long-term projects.
To put the demand into perspective, the authors also point to the unequal distribution of “installed copper” in infrastructure: in the USA, the EU, and other high-income countries, the built environment contains about 441 pounds (200 kilograms) of copper per capita. In India and many African countries, by contrast, it is less than 1 pound (about 0.5 kilograms). The catch-up development there—for example in power distribution, telecommunications, air conditioning, heating, plumbing, industrial equipment, and public transport—will require additional quantities of copper.
The team’s conclusion is accordingly pointed: the world does not have too little copper, but too little time to mine it fast enough. To meet the foreseeably rising demand, political prioritization, social acceptance—and, in the authors’ view, a price level that actually triggers new mine development—are needed.
Discovery of new, significant deposits of crucial importance
In this environment, the discovery of new copper deposits of significant scale is also of great importance, though the majors in the industry often leave this to small exploration companies. These include, for example, the Canadian company Algo Grande Copper (WKN A41UK1 / TSXV ALGR) with its Adelita project. Only recently, the company, which incidentally also uses AI for exploration, was able to report initial promising drilling results of up to 4.1% copper. The fact that investors have also recognized Algo Grande’s potential is shown by the fact that the company, led by CEO Enrico Gay, increased its current financing round from 5 to 7 million CAD—and did so without investors receiving an additional share purchase option (warrant), which is otherwise often common in such cases!
With the fresh capital, Algo Grande will finance the next exploration phase at the 100% company-owned Adelita project in Sonora (Mexico), with a focus on the Phase II drilling program. Phase I drilling at the Cerro Grande skarn intersected several stacked Cu-Au-Ag skarn horizons at depth, including skarn zones that had not been identified in previous drilling. The upcoming program aims for expansion drilling at Cerro Grande and initial drilling along an approximately 6-kilometer-long promising limestone corridor containing several un-drilled, outcropping skarn targets.
Also exciting is the massive Thorn project from Brixton Metals (WKN A1J09P / TSXV BBB), which features several copper deposits that the company, led by CEO Gary Thompson, intends to further advance this year. The company recently reported that it has discovered further promising exploration targets at Thorn with the help of geochemical sampling.
Once again, Axo Copper (TSXV AXO / WKN A416BY) reported positive results from the La Huerta copper project. As part of its ongoing drilling program there, the company encountered, among other things, an 11.4-meter intercept with 2.26% copper and 6.29 g/t silver, including 4.15 meters with 3.69% copper and 9.33 g/t silver. According to the company, this result represents a down-dip extension of approximately 40 meters compared to LHCC-25-031, which was previously reported with 12.4 meters at 1.64% copper and 7.59 g/t silver.
We will continue to report on the progress of these and other exciting copper companies—including directly from PDAC 2026, the world’s largest mining convention, taking place in Toronto from March 1 to 4. It is best to follow us on our YouTube channel so you don’t miss any updates!
