Gold continues its run to previously unimagined heights: On Thursday, the spot price temporarily rose to just under USD 5,600 per ounce, marking a new record level. At the same time, silver advanced to within a few dollars of the USD 120 mark. According to market observers, the movement is based on a mix of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic concerns and a growing demand for stores of value perceived as stable.
The speed of this movement is particularly striking: Gold only exceeded the psychologically important mark of USD 5,000 per ounce for the first time on Monday. Since then, gold has already gained more than 10% this week. In annual terms, gold is now up by more than 27% – after an already strong increase of 64% in 2025.
Gold as a safe haven: Debt, trade and “neutral” store of value
Analysts cite increasing nervousness with regard to state finances and the stability of the global trading system as the central driver. They point, among other things, to growing US debt and the uncertainty arising from signs of a fragmentation of world trade. Instead of a clearly US-centered system, stronger regional blocs would emerge – an environment in which gold is traditionally sought as a safe haven.
In addition, there is the well-known tailwind that has often accompanied rising gold prices in the past: a weaker US dollar and continued purchases by central banks. These factors are part of a cocktail of factors that is driving the rally. Central bank demand in particular is regarded as a stabilizing demand block in the current environment, which can have a greater influence on pricing than in phases in which gold is primarily dominated by financial investors.
Analysts also describe a shift in the perception of gold: gold is no longer only regarded as a crisis or inflation hedge, but increasingly as a “neutral” and reliable store of value that can provide diversification across various macroeconomic regimes. This view fits a market phase in which uncertainty is not only attributable to a single factor, but several issues are having an impact at the same time – from fiscal issues to monetary policy and geopolitical risks.
Geopolitics and monetary policy: Iran tensions and Fed remains cautious
The rally in gold coincided with a news flow that additionally supported the demand for safe-haven assets. In geopolitics, the conflict between the US and Iran moved into focus: US President Donald Trump called on Iran on Wednesday to negotiate on nuclear weapons and warned that a future US attack would be much more severe. According to the report, Tehran reacted with the threat to strike back against the USA, Israel and supporters in the event of an attack. Such escalation risks often increase the attractiveness of gold as a “safe haven” because market participants tend to shift liquidity into values perceived as robust in unclear situations.
US monetary policy also played a role. This is because the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday – as expected. According to the report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also said that inflation in December was likely to remain well above the target value of 2%. This is doubly relevant for gold: Firstly, a cautious Fed in an uncertain environment signals that the central bank is weighing things up and that there may be limited scope. Secondly, inflationary pressure – even if it does not escalate acutely – remains a factor that can support the demand for gold as a store of value.
Market observers, however, also point to the risks of overheating. Experts describe the movement as “parabolic” – an indication that short-term setbacks could be imminent. At the same time, it is emphasized that the fundamental factors could remain supportive over 2026.
New demand impulses: Tether, Shanghai and the silver pull effect
In addition to classic drivers such as geopolitics and central banks, the report also mentions new demand impulses. For example, the crypto group Tether plans to allocate 10% to 15% of its investment portfolio to physical gold. In an already tight market environment, such an announcement acts as an additional sentiment and demand factor – especially because it emphasizes the topic of “physical gold.”
At the same time, increased activity is being reported from the retail sector in Asia: In Shanghai and Hong Kong, customers are increasingly visiting stores that sell precious metals. This indicates a noticeable participation of private buyers, who often either see a need for hedging or are betting on a continuation of the trend in phases of sharply rising prices. This demand component can amplify the dynamic in the short term, especially if it coincides with momentum purchases on the futures markets.
Silver also benefited significantly in this environment. The spot price rose by 1.1% to USD 117.87 per ounce on Thursday, after a record high of USD 119.34 had previously been reached. According to the report, silver is partly sought by investors as a cheaper alternative to gold, while at the same time supply bottlenecks and momentum purchases are supporting the market. In annual terms, silver is already up by more than 60%.
The analysts at Standard Chartered refer in a note to another year with a deficit on the silver market. The actual market tension arises less from the current deficit alone, but from a lower availability of above-ground stocks. In other words, even if supply and demand in the current year are “only” just apart, the price can react strongly if available inventories are not mobilized to the extent that the market requires.
