After a record year in 2025, the question of how gold and silver will fare in 2026 is moving into focus. In the current “Precious Metals Outlook 2026,” the experts at Heraeus outline a picture characterized by headwinds in the first half of the year and potential support in the second half. While gold could be supported primarily by continued central bank purchases, inflation concerns, and the issue of “fiscal dominance,” the firm sees weaker demand for silver in several core segments – with the possibility that the metal will nevertheless follow the gold price.
At the same time, Heraeus points to risks for the entire precious metal complex: After the very strong price performance in 2025, pullbacks and a phase of consolidation are likely before a possible next upward movement can start.
Gold Outlook 2026: Consolidation after record rally
The starting point of the Heraeus analysis is the extraordinary development of gold and silver in 2025. Both metals reached new highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, the discussion about the further development of inflation, a weaker US dollar, and a significant increase in investment demand. According to the analysts, however, this rally went “too fast, too far” – they therefore consider a breather to be likely.
For the first half of 2026, Heraeus expects tendentially weaker or sideways trading in the precious metals sector before gold could receive support again in the further course of the year. The analysts see the continued purchases of central banks as a central pillar. Although these acquired somewhat less gold in 2025 than in the three years before, in which more than 1,000 tons were added annually, demand remains robust. A survey by the World Gold Council also suggests that a significant proportion of central banks expect gold inventories to continue to rise while wanting to reduce dollar holdings in favor of gold or other currencies.
On the opposite side is subdued jewelry demand: In many countries, sales of gold jewelry fell in 2025 due to high prices. Even if the price of gold falls, Heraeus believes that jewelry demand is likely to remain below the level of previous years.
For 2026, Heraeus locates the gold price in a trading range of 3,750 to 5,000 US dollars per ounce. The range reflects the high level of uncertainty with regard to the economy, monetary policy, and geopolitics – as well as the assessment that after the strong price increase in 2025, a phase of consolidation is likely before a possible new upward trend could begin.
Central banks, inflation, and the role of gold
Heraeus sees a central market parameter in the connection between monetary and fiscal policy in the USA. After the recent budget compromise and the avoidance of a government shutdown, the risk of “fiscal dominance” is moving more into the foreground: This refers to an environment in which monetary policy is effectively geared towards securing lower interest rates and thus facilitating the financing of high government spending.
In addition, President Trump has the opportunity to reappoint the chairman of the US Federal Reserve from May 2026. Heraeus points out that a more growth-oriented monetary policy in conjunction with high deficits could lead to inflation remaining above the 2 percent target for longer and real interest rates remaining at or below zero. Historically, phases of negative real interest rates have often been accompanied by rising gold demand.
At the same time, the investment side remains significant: According to Heraeus, demand for bars and coins has continued to grow, while gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings in 2025. A total of around 14.7 million ounces were added, increasing global ETF holdings by 18 percent to 97.5 million ounces. At the same time, holdings are still below the record level of 2020 (111 million ounces, according to the Heraeus database), so from the analysts’ point of view, there is room for further inflows – provided the market environment favors this.
Silver 2026: High volatility, investment demand in focus
Heraeus paints a differentiated picture for silver. The metal marked new all-time highs at the end of 2025 – triggered by a massive tightening of liquidity when physical silver flowed from London to New York, ETF inflows picked up, and private investors increasingly pushed into the market. As a result, leasing rates rose, while the shortage is now more visible in China. After this steep movement, however, Heraeus expects a phase in which the market “digests” the gains.
On the demand side, the analysts see several braking marks in 2026. This is particularly evident in the photovoltaic sector: After years of strong expansion, PV installations are expected to grow only moderately in the coming year, particularly due to policy changes in the most important market, China. At the same time, the high silver price has intensified efforts to reduce silver consumption per module – for example, through finer conductor tracks, changes in cell design, or replacement with cheaper metals. Overall, PV demand for silver could therefore decline despite further expansion, according to the experts.
According to Heraeus, other industrial segments will also be characterized more by the global pace of growth and trade conflicts. Jewelry and silverware are also suffering from high prices: In India, which accounts for around 40 percent of global silver jewelry demand and about two-thirds of the silverware market, imports in the twelve-month period to October have fallen by 14 percent.
On the supply side, the high price is likely to increase recycling rates. Since a large proportion of silver comes as a by-product from gold, copper, and lead/zinc mines, and these metals could see slightly higher production volumes in 2026, Heraeus also expects a slight increase in mine production. Under the line, demand growth could therefore depend heavily on the investment sector – i.e., on bars, coins, and especially silver ETFs. Their holdings rose by 17 percent to 835 million ounces in 2025 before profit-taking occurred.
For 2026, Heraeus expects a trading range of 43 to 62 US dollars per ounce of silver. As a “high-beta” variant of gold, silver is likely to react particularly strongly to movements in the gold price and to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
PGM markets: Platinum, palladium & Co. remain sensitive to economic cycles
In addition to gold and silver, Heraeus also examines the markets for platinum group metals (PGM). The analysts point to the role of physical metal flows into the USA, which have caused additional volatility in the wake of sanctions and tariff considerations against Russia. It is still unclear whether and in what form PGMs will be subject to further trade policy measures – corresponding decisions could trigger warehouse movements and price reactions.
For 2026, Heraeus expects that the platinum market will remain the “tightest” of the major PGMs, but the deficit will be smaller due to weaker demand. For palladium and rhodium, the increasing spread of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is having an impact, which reduces the need for catalytic converters and thus for these metals.
Heraeus cites the economic development in the USA as an overriding risk for the PGM markets. The easing of the previously inverse yield curve and signs of a weaker labor market would indicate a possible recession. Should there actually be an economic downturn in 2026, the company expects that the prices of platinum group metals will come under pressure.
Conclusion: Gold remains an anchor, silver the more volatile variant
In summary, Heraeus paints a picture for 2026 in which gold maintains its role as a stabilizer in the precious metal complex – supported by central bank purchases, the issue of inflation, and the debate about fiscal dominance. Silver remains closely linked to gold but is likely to fluctuate more and is confronted with headwinds in several demand segments. For investors, the outlook means above all one thing: The development of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the global economy remains the central framework in which gold and silver prices will move in the coming year.
