The 90-day ‘standstill agreement’ in the trade conflict between the USA and China was apparently more than many market participants and observers had expected. According to analysts at JP Morgan, the temporary suspension of extremely high – although not all – import tariffs on each other’s goods is a crucial factor in reducing the probability of a recession. This, the experts continue, would then also reduce the downside risks for metal demand and metal prices.
JP Morgan therefore assumes that the copper price will average $9,225 per tonne in 2025. For aluminum, they expect an average of $2,325 per tonne.
According to the US investment bank, metal prices could continue to rise in the short term, as Chinese buyers are likely to continue to bring forward their purchases to benefit from the tariff rollback. However, JP Morgan is skeptical about the duration of the easing in the trade conflict between the two superpowers, so they are less positive for the second half of this year.
According to the analysts, factors that have supported the copper price since early April are likely to gradually disappear. In addition, JP Morgan expects more supply to reach China in the coming months, as the unusually high shipments to the USA to preempt threatened tariffs should then come to an end.
For aluminum, a decline in automotive demand, which accounts for 25% of aluminum demand, could put pressure on the price towards the end of the year.
