Average Analyst Forecasts Rise Significantly
Just six months ago, many market participants considered a gold price of $3,000 per ounce unrealistic – today it’s the base scenario among commodity analysts! According to the current quarterly survey by Reuters news agency, 29 analysts and traders expect an average gold price of $3,065 per ounce in 2025! This significantly exceeds the forecast from the previous survey ($2,756). The estimate for 2026 has also been raised from $2,700 to $3,000.
Drivers: De-Dollarization and Geopolitical Tensions
The strong price momentum is largely driven by geopolitical uncertainties, intensified trade tensions, and the growing trend towards de-dollarization. Gold has already risen by about 24% this year, approaching the previous year’s gain of 27%. Some analysts see the yellow metal poised for another sensational year – partly because increasing investments due to price strength could act as a self-reinforcing mechanism.
Technical Correction, but Stable Fundamentals
Although gold is currently trading about $250 below the all-time high of $3,500, analysts do not see a trend reversal. Volatile US tariff policies and prolonged trade negotiations continue to be viewed as supporting factors for the gold price. Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, emphasizes that the gold price remains dependent on the economic and political environment – particularly on the progressive departure of many countries from the US dollar and the effects of global tariff measures.
Risks in the Physical Market Are Increasing
At the same time, market observers warn of overheating tendencies: the physical market shows fluctuations, jewelry demand suffers from high prices, and inflows from central banks are slowing down. Moreover, if recession and tariff fears subside, this could reduce interest in gold as a safe haven.
Silver Remains in the Shadow, but Shows Potential
The development in the silver market is more stable. Analysts expect an average spot price of $33.10 per ounce for 2025. The forecast for 2026 has been slightly raised to $34.58. Analysts attribute this to structural supply deficits and the globally increasing focus on clean energy, assuming that the currently subdued industrial demand due to an oversupply of solar cells is only temporary. In the future, rising requirements from the automotive industry and the AI industry are expected to intensify the deficit in the silver market.
Nevertheless, silver lags behind gold’s development: With an increase of around 13% since the beginning of the year, it has only managed to gain half as much as gold. The combination of weak industrial absorption and low central bank interest continues to weigh on the gray metal, according to observers.
