The geopolitical map of the Middle East has shifted fundamentally over the past weekend. With the start of massive US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities on February 28, 2026, the scenario that market strategists have feared for months has materialized: a direct military confrontation between the regional powers.
While equity markets worldwide are under heavy selling pressure, gold once again confirms its role as the “lender of last resort.” With a jump to over USD 5,400 per ounce, the precious metal is setting historic highs and bringing the USD 6,000 mark within striking distance.
Escalation in the Persian Gulf: The Strait of Hormuz in focus
The key driver behind the current panic in commodity markets is the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global oil consumption flows through this bottleneck every day. Should Iran, as indicated in initial threats, mine this route or attack it with missiles, the world would face an energy shock that would make the inflation rates of recent years pale by comparison.
For gold investors, this is a double-edged but price-supportive dynamic: On the one hand, sheer fear of the conflict spreading into a wider conflagration is driving massive inflows into physical gold. On the other hand, the sharp rise in oil prices—Brent is already trading above USD 82—threatens a new wave of cost inflation. In an environment in which currencies are being devalued by geopolitical instability and rising government spending on armaments, gold remains the only hard currency without counterparty risk.
Safe haven sought: Why the USD 6,000 mark is now becoming realistic
The technical picture for the gold price has improved significantly following the breakout above the psychologically important USD 5,000 level. We are currently seeing capitulation by short sellers and a major move by institutional investors, who need to hedge their portfolios against the “tail risk” of a major regional war.
Analysts emphasize that the current rally is fundamentally underpinned in a very different way than purely speculative rises in the past. The combination of a domestically unstable Islamic Republic backed into a corner and a determined US administration under Donald Trump creates an unpredictability that will support gold sentiment for the foreseeable future. As long as diplomatic channels in Geneva remain frozen and missile strikes dominate the headlines, any pullback in the gold market is likely to be used by buyers as a strategic entry opportunity.
