The gold market continues its run to record highs, but the World Bank is tempering excessive expectations: In its updated commodity outlook, the institution expects a gold price increase of only around 5% for 2026 – a clear contrast to the strong rally of 2025. This paints a two-part picture for investors and industry observers: While gold remains high as a safe haven, the interplay of geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and central bank purchases in particular sets the pace. At the same time, the World Bank sees silver in 2026 being supported by both sustained investment and industrial demand.
World Bank Forecast: Gold at US$3,575 per Ounce in 2026, Slight Correction in 2027
Specifically, the World Bank expects an average gold price of around US$3,575 per ounce in 2026. This would mean that after the strong year of 2025 – the World Bank speaks of +42% year-on-year and refers to a rally of around 50% in the current year – gold will only increase moderately. For 2027, however, the analysts expect a decline to an average of US$3,375 per ounce, which would be more than 5% below the 2026 level. Despite this flattening, the structural uplift remains remarkable: Even in 2026, the World Bank estimates the gold price to be more than 180% above the average for the years 2015–2019.
The World Bank cites investment demand as the main driver of the recent price strength – supported by geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic concerns and a loose US monetary policy with a simultaneously weaker US dollar. A historical comparison shows parallels to the price jump in 1979/80, when gold reacted to high inflation, oil price shocks and geopolitical risks. Unlike then, however, current price impulses are less energy and inflation-driven; instead, the World Bank highlights the extraordinarily high central bank purchases as a special feature of the current phase.
Silver: Dual Role as a Safe Haven and Industrial Commodity
Silver is also on the fast track in the projection: For 2026, the World Bank expects an average price of around US$41 per ounce, which, based on today’s averages, would correspond to an increase of 7.9%. For 2027, the analysts see an average of US$37 per ounce and thus a normalisation after the ramp-up. Nevertheless, the demand outlook remains robust – silver serves the dual role as a safe haven investment and as a key material in high-growth sectors.
Industrial use is particularly noteworthy: Photovoltaics, semiconductors and other areas of the energy transition are among the most important silver consumers. The World Bank expects that this industrial pull will flank investment demand and thus continue to support the silver price. In combination with gold, this results in a precious metal mix that reacts to both risk aversion and technological trends.
Risks and Scenarios: What could Change the Path for Gold and Silver
From the World Bank’s perspective, whether the paths for gold and silver take exactly this course depends on several factors. The analysts see upside risks primarily in the event of a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions, additional trade conflicts or surprising financial market volatility. Any new wave of safe haven inflows could carry the gold price and silver price beyond the paths outlined now.
In contrast, there are downside risks: Should geopolitical tensions ease and major central banks become more hawkish again, this could dampen investment demand. A stronger US dollar and more restrictive monetary policy would reduce the relative advantages of gold and silver as hedges. For 2027, the World Bank already points to a likely consolidation – without completely questioning the structural level of prices.
What the Forecasts Mean for the Market
The forecasts provide market players with several anchor points. Firstly, the gold market remains – despite the expected slowdown – at an elevated price level. The ongoing purchases by central banks are a significant buffer against abrupt trend reversals. Secondly, silver is likely to maintain its role as a bridge metal between safe haven investment and industrial commodity, driven by the energy transition and technology production. Thirdly, the range of possible developments remains broad – depending on the course of geopolitics, the economy, the US dollar and monetary policy.
For readers, this means: The World Bank paints a realistic scenario after an extraordinary year in 2025. Gold is likely to increase in 2026, but in smaller increments; silver remains flanked by two demand blocks. From 2027, experts see a normalisation – but from a level that is significantly above the pre-crisis years. This means that the gold price in the global commodity structure remains a central indicator for risk and liquidity preferences, while silver is increasingly perceived as a key technological metal.
