Gold with Room for further Upside

Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades, September 23, 2025

The gold price reached a new all-time high today, having risen by around 2% so far this week, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a more dovish Fed.

Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are escalating, while markets are pricing in further interest rate cuts well into 2026, meaning rates could be 1 percentage point or even more lower in a year. This creates room for further dollar weakness and exacerbates inflation concerns, both of which support demand for the precious metal.

Comments from Fed official Stephen Miran reinforced this dovish outlook, suggesting the Fed’s policy rate is likely to be below 3%, which could mean further rate cuts of 1 to 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, today’s key risk events are Powell’s speech and the release of US PMI data.

A dovish tone from the Fed Chair and stronger PMI figures could temporarily create headwinds for gold. Against this backdrop, I expect prices to consolidate above $3,750 in the short term, with room for further upside and a new resistance level at around $3,900.

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