In an analyst note dated Wednesday, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold at the end of 2026: Instead of $4,900 per ounce, the US bank now expects the precious metal to reach $5,400. Goldman Sachs cites continued diversification into gold as the central driver – both in the private sector and among central banks in emerging markets.
The dynamic is already evident in the market: Spot gold climbed to $4,887.82 per ounce at times on Wednesday. According to the report, gold is thus up more than 11% since the beginning of 2026. The recent upward movement builds on the previous year, in which the price reportedly rose by 64%. For many investors, gold remains a classic “safe haven” in this environment, especially when political and economic risks increase.
Gold reaches new highs – banks raise target prices
Goldman Sachs’ adjustment of its forecast is another signal that market participants are increasingly preparing for a higher price level. Importantly, Goldman Sachs refers not only to short-term factors, but also to structural sources of demand that, in the analysts’ view, could support the gold market for longer.
In addition to Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank has also raised its expectations. As mentioned in the report, the institute raised its gold forecast for the end of the year to $4,900 per ounce in the previous week. The reason given was an increased demand for safe havens. Although the two houses have different time horizons, the direction is identical: Several banks see the price increase not as a short-term snapshot, but as a sustained trend.
The fact that gold is preferred by investors in uncertain times is a well-known pattern. However, what is new is the pace at which the market is moving and the level at which forecasts are now moving. This is precisely where Goldman Sachs’ argument comes in: The bank sees a demand component that has apparently been stronger in recent months than many models had previously depicted.
Diversification into gold: Private sector and central banks as drivers
According to Goldman Sachs, diversification outside of classic speculative inflows plays a decisive role. In the note, the bank particularly emphasizes “diversification buyers” from the private sector. These players reportedly used gold as a hedge against global political risks – and their purchases have made a significant contribution to the positive surprises compared to previous price assumptions.
A key point of the Goldman thesis: These private diversification holdings are not expected to be reduced on a large scale in 2026. Goldman Sachs puts it this way, that they assume that these buyers will not liquidate their gold holdings in 2026. From the bank’s perspective, this effectively raises the starting point for the price assumption – i.e. the level from which further movements take place.
In addition, central bank demand remains an important pillar. Goldman Sachs expects central banks to buy an average of 60 tons of gold in 2026. In particular, central banks from emerging markets are expected to further diversify their currency reserves and increase the share of gold. This is relevant for the market because central banks typically do not act in the short term, but strategically – and can therefore represent a comparatively stable demand.
The combination of private and official diversification is changing the perception of the market: Gold would then not only be a cyclical beneficiary of crisis phases, but an asset that is increasingly held for strategic reasons – as a building block in reserves and portfolios to reduce dependencies and spread risks.
