Gold appears to be continuing its upward trend at the start of the week. Several major investment banks also expect the yellow metal to reach new record levels in 2026. In an environment of geopolitical tensions, looser monetary policy and sustained strong demand from central banks, many investors are increasingly turning to gold as a “hard” asset – and this is reflected in the forecasts.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for example, expect gold to rise to around $5,055 per ounce in the final quarter of 2026. Morgan Stanley is somewhat more cautious, seeing the gold price at around $4,400 by the end of 2026, while UBS expects $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce by the middle of next year. Despite differing detailed assumptions, there is a rare consensus on Wall Street: the houses believe that gold is in a structural bull market, driven by macroeconomic risks and record demand from the official sector.
Gold in an upward trend: A look back at the 2025 rally
The current upward trend in gold accelerated dynamically, especially in the second half of 2025. In the fall, the precious metal exceeded the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time on a sustained basis, reaching a record high of around $4,381 in October. At the same time, gold recorded its first monthly closing price above the $4,000 threshold.
By November 11, the gain over the year had totaled 58 percent, putting gold ahead of numerous other asset classes. At the start of the week, the spot price in Europe was a good $4,229 per ounce.
The rally was driven primarily by expectations of further declines in US key interest rates. The US Federal Reserve
Historically, falling real interest rates and a weaker US dollar show a close connection to rising gold prices. Morgan Stanley points out that since the 1990s, gold has risen by an average of around six percent in the 60 days following the start of a Fed interest rate cut cycle. Many investors now regard gold not only as protection against inflation, but also as an indicator of monetary policy changes and geopolitical risks.
Central banks remain a key factor for the gold market
A key element of the optimistic gold forecasts is the massive purchases by central banks. JPMorgan expects combined demand from central banks and investors to average 566 tonnes per quarter by 2026. Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases of around 760 tonnes per year for 2025 and 2026 – significantly above historical averages.
The World Gold Council reports that 95 percent of central banks expect a further increase in global gold reserves. 43 percent of the institutions plan to increase their own holdings in the coming year. This continues a trend that began well before the recent rally: since 2013, central banks have acquired around 8,200 tonnes of gold, clearly exceeding net inflows into exchange-traded gold products.
The year 2022 was of particular importance, when Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were partially frozen. This step prompted many central banks in emerging markets to rethink their dependence on the US dollar and classify gold as a politically less vulnerable reserve component.
Sprott Asset Management describes this development in its Precious Metals Report as a kind of “central bank gold put”: The continued demand from the official sector acts like a steady purchase floor that can cushion setbacks in the gold price. At the same time, Sprott points out that the upward movement is not primarily speculative, but is driven by structural concerns about national debt, budget deficits and the reliability of fiat currencies.
Gold: Debasement trade, risks and the role of private investors
In addition to monetary policy and central banks, another driver is moving into the foreground: the search for protection against currency devaluation, often referred to as the “debasement trade.” Sprott argues that investors are increasingly shifting from US dollar-denominated bonds and yield-sensitive stocks into physical precious metals and, in some cases, cryptocurrencies in order to secure purchasing power and assets against systemic risks.
Several houses see the behavior of private investors as a potential additional impetus for the gold price. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan point out that a broader diversification push from global bond markets could have noticeable effects even on a relatively small scale, as the market for gold investments is significantly smaller compared to the volume of government bonds.
Even the traditionally more cautious World Bank has adjusted its expectations. In its Commodity Outlook, it expects an average gold price of $3,575 per ounce in 2026, after $3,410 in 2025. Although the experts there expect a certain plateau phase after 2026, they emphasize that geopolitical shocks could drive prices significantly above the base scenario at any time.
Nevertheless, the analysts also see risks. The rapid price rally has temporarily led gold into technically overbought territory. Morgan Stanley points to a daily decline of six percent in October as an example of short-term exaggerations. Higher prices could also dampen the willingness of some central banks to acquire large additional quantities, while a continued strong performance on the stock markets could withdraw capital from a non-interest-bearing asset such as gold.
Outlook: Gold as a strategic core position
Despite these uncertainties, the basic tenor of the forecasts remains positive. After the October correction, Goldman Sachs spoke of a “healthy” pullback within a multi-year upward trend. Sprott even assumes that the current gold cycle is still in an early phase and that the underlying factors – high debt, expansive fiscal policy, structural deficits – are more long-term in nature.
Looking ahead to 2026, forecasts for the gold price range from around $4,400 to $5,300 per ounce, with an expected average well above $4,000. Against this backdrop, numerous market observers are increasingly describing gold not only as a tactical hedge, but as a fixed component of a strategic asset allocation.
