According to analysts at Citi Group, the precious metals bull market could continue into the first quarter of 2026 – with great momentum. The experts have raised their short-term price targets accordingly: Gold is expected to rise above $5,000 per ounce as early as the first quarter, and they see silver at $100 per ounce. The reasoning: a mixture of increased geopolitical risks, persistent bottlenecks in the physical market and new uncertainty surrounding the independence of the US Federal Reserve.
The analysts emphasize that the recent run is not only driven by the classic “macro” narrative, but also by tangible logistics effects. Silver and platinum group metals (PGM) in particular have recently shown an unusual price sensitivity to warehouse movements and trade flows. This is one of the reasons why price reactions can currently be stronger than in “normal” market phases.
Citi raises short-term targets for gold and silver
By raising the 0–3 month targets, Citi is highlighting the expectation that precious metals will continue to benefit from uncertainty at the beginning of 2026. Gold is considered a hedging instrument in such phases, while silver also reacts to its industrial use – and can therefore fluctuate more sharply in trend phases. Citi maintains its thesis that silver could continue to outperform gold, even though both metals have already started the year with new records.
The classification in the larger context is interesting: According to the strategists, their longer-term narrative has proven its worth, according to which a precious metal bull market is increasingly “broadening” – and later industrial metals could also take over the leadership role. Citi sees this switch in market attention as a possible characteristic of the course of 2026: initially tailwind for gold and silver, with potentially more focus on classic “energy transition” metals such as copper in the further course.
Section 232, tariff risks and local bottlenecks in the physical market
A central risk factor in the Citi analysis remains US trade policy. The strategists refer to the upcoming decisions within the framework of “Section 232” on critical minerals. Depending on the outcome, these procedures may result in tariff measures or other trade restrictions. This is particularly relevant for markets that function strongly via storage and supply chains: Even the expectation of possible tariffs can divert flows, bring metal “to safety” and create regional scarcity.
Citi describes this situation as a binary risk: In a scenario with high tariffs, physical bottlenecks could worsen in the short term because material is increasingly shipped to the USA. This would restrict availability in other regions and favor price peaks. If, on the other hand, there is clarity – for example, through a decision against tariffs or a less restrictive design – stocks previously drawn into the USA could flow out again. This would tend to ease the shortage outside the USA and thus put pressure on prices.
Citi sees a potentially tricky constellation here, especially for silver: Should Section 232-related outflows or reallocations trigger larger movements, a significant price slump could hit not only silver. The strategists warn that a rapid correction in silver could subsequently “drag down” other precious metals and even base metals – simply because the positioning and risk budgets of many market participants are linked across several metal markets.
Looking beyond precious metals: Industrial metals could dominate in 2026
Despite the short-term bullish projection for gold, Citi emphasizes that the focus could shift in the course of 2026. The strategists expect that industrial metals – depending on the macro situation and political environment – will move more into the foreground later in the year. Citi particularly mentions aluminum and copper as candidates that could perform relatively better in the second half of the year. The idea behind this is that structural demand from electrification, grid expansion and investments in energy-intensive infrastructure will remain high, while the “crisis premium” for gold could weaken.
This is precisely where the most important caveat of the Citi forecast comes in: For the second half of 2026, the strategists assume a certain relaxation of global conflicts. Should this environment occur, demand for classic “safe haven assets” could decline. According to the assessment, gold would be most vulnerable to a noticeable correction in this case – while silver could form a stabilizing counterweight due to its industrial factor and base metals due to the transformation requirements.
The bottom line is that Citi paints a two-part picture: further upside potential for gold and silver in the short term – flanked by physical bottlenecks and political uncertainty – but later in the year an environment in which price formation could be more strongly influenced by growth, investment cycles and industrial demand. For market participants, this means above all: 2026 is likely to be less of a linear continuation of a trend and more of a year in which political decisions and trade flows will have a major impact on the fluctuations.
