Gold recently ended its second week weaker in a row, but continues to fluctuate around the $4,000 per ounce mark. From its recent high, the gold price has fallen by around 11% in this first correction phase. Further fluctuations cannot be ruled out in the short term, but the market appears to be stable at this elevated level. In the medium term, industry voices are predominantly confident – driven by geopolitical uncertainty, an expected looser course by the US Federal Reserve and a tendentially weaker US dollar.
Gold: Market Overview and Current Price Movement
After the dynamic increase over the course of the year, gold is encountering profit-taking and technical counter-movements. The decline of around 11% since the high reflects typical consolidation patterns, as are frequently observed after strong increases. Despite the volatility, the context remains decisive: The precious metal is trading near historic highs, and many observers see the current phase more as a sideways/stabilization movement at a high level. In addition to geopolitical factors, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy in the medium term is having a supportive effect – an environment that tends to give real yields and the US dollar headwinds and thus give gold tailwind.
Many Positive Forecasts
At the LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference, delegates painted an optimistic picture, according to a report by KitcoNews: In twelve months’ time, gold is expected to test the resistance just below USD 5,000 per ounce – around +25% compared to the current level. It is the most bullish LBMA assessment in years, after participants had underestimated the rally for the last two years in a row.
Large institutions are also joining in. HSBC, Bank of America and Société Générale are forecasting US$5,000/oz in 2026. (We reported) The British Metals Focus also expects US$5,000 for gold and US$60 for silver as early as next year. In contrast, there is a more cautious tone: The World Bank expects only +5% for the gold price in 2026, and the experts at Natixis see an average of around USD 3,800 per ounce in 2026. Nevertheless, these projections are not negative either – they rather outline a more moderate development after the strong preliminary phase.
Central Banks as a Pillar of the Gold Market
A key driver remains central bank demand. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought around 200 tonnes in the 3rd quarter and are heading towards 750 – 900 tonnes for the year as a whole. In the past three years, net purchases have totalled over 3,000 tonnes – a structural factor that supports gold demand regardless of short-term market fluctuations. At the LBMA conference, the South Korean central bank also signalled interest in additional gold purchases in the medium to long term – the first since 2013. This ongoing reserve diversification reflects the need for value-stable, liquid collateral in the global currency and interest rate environment.
In the short term, there is much to suggest a consolidation of the gold price in the region of USD 4,000 per ounce, while data points on inflation, the labour market and monetary policy dictate the pace. In the medium term, the range of expectations extends from a moderate plus to tests of the $5,000 mark. The common denominator: Even the cautious scenarios see gold continuing to be significantly above the average level of the years 2015 – 2019; the World Bank estimates more than 180% above this baseline average in 2026.
