The gold price is on the rise again following the outbreak of military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. After a brief setback, the precious metal is once again trading near $5,400 per troy ounce—and analysts agree: the all-time high of $5,594.82 from January 29, 2026, is drawing dangerously close.
Escalation in the Middle East fuels safe-haven demand
The trigger for the recent price surge lies in the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated airstrikes on Iranian targets, in which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also killed. The geopolitical shockwave sent investors fleeing into traditional safe-haven assets—with an immediate impact on the gold market.
Already at the start of the week on March 2, 2026, the spot price shot up from around $5,100 to an intraday high of $5,419.32—an increase of over six percent in just a few days. US gold futures rose at times to $5,397.40. It was the highest level since late January, and the market has clearly shown how much explosive potential lies in the current situation.
Brief correction, strong recovery
After the initial price jump, temporary profit-taking set in on Monday afternoon. The spot price corrected moderately to values around $5,340 before stabilizing again at approximately $5,384 by the end of the trading day. Technical analysts see solid support in the $5,200 range—as long as this level holds, the overall trend structure remains clearly bullish.
“The market is using pullbacks to build new long positions. The momentum picture remains intact,” a London analyst commented on the situation. Crucial for the next upward push is now the resistance at $5,430—a sustained breakout above this opens the way back to the all-time high of $5,594.82.
Trump: Conflict could last four to five weeks
US President Donald Trump personally caused continued heightened uncertainty. He told journalists that his administration projects the conflict to last four to five weeks—with the ability to “hold out much longer if necessary.” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized that the goal is to destroy the Iranian missile base as well as naval and security infrastructure, not to wage an “endless war.”
For the gold market, these statements mean: the geopolitical risk premium will remain priced in for the foreseeable future. As long as the conflict continues and escalation cannot be ruled out, safe-haven demand for gold is likely to remain structurally elevated.
Strait of Hormuz: The second risk
Another market-moving factor is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil trade flows. Over 100 tankers have already been stopped; Brent Crude rose by up to 13% on Monday to $82 per barrel—the highest level in 14 months. Wood Mackenzie warns of oil prices reaching $100 should the blockage continue. Goldman Sachs has already priced in a risk premium of $18 per barrel.
Higher oil prices mean higher inflation—and that is traditionally a positive environment for gold. US producer prices had already risen more than expected recently, further increasing inflationary pressure.
Analysts significantly raise price targets
The reaction from investment banks was not long in coming: JP Morgan has raised its gold price target to $6,300 per troy ounce by December 2026. A City Index analyst sees $5,500 as realistic in the short term, followed by a new all-time high above $5,600. Longer-term Fibonacci projections from individual technical analysts even reach the $6,100 to $7,200 range.
The structural drivers remain strong: ongoing central bank purchases, inflation concerns, dollar uncertainty, and now a further stage of escalation in the geopolitical environment. Gold recorded its seventh consecutive monthly gain in February—the longest positive streak since 1973.
Conclusion: The all-time high is within reach
The gold price has the $5,400 mark firmly in its sights. As long as the Iran conflict continues and Trump does not signal a rapid de-escalation, the risk-reward profile clearly favors further price gains. The all-time high of $5,594.82 is technically the next major target—and with a duration of four to five weeks, as projected by the US government itself, this level could soon fall.
