The gold price remains robust at the start of the new trading week and continues its upward trend. On Tuesday morning, an ounce of gold is trading at around 3,370 US dollars, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. Experts are calling it a “mega-week” for the precious metal, as several pivotal events are on the horizon.
Market Conditions and Influencing Factors
On Monday morning, the yellow metal continued its ascent, trading at 3,370 dollars – approximately 20 dollars higher than on Friday evening. Notably, gold was able to maintain its gains despite a slight recovery in the US dollar. However, the trading range initially remains limited. For Tuesday, a movement between 3,380 and 3,440 US dollars is expected, with the focus on developments above the 3,400 mark.
A significant catalyst for the recent price increase was the unexpectedly weak US labor market data released last Friday. This data significantly increased the probability of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has risen from 43% to 75%. This development is fundamentally positive for gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal.
In addition to monetary policy expectations, geopolitical and trade policy factors are also playing an increasingly important role. The looming US tariffs, in particular, are a focal point of attention. The combination of weak US data, growing political influence on central banks and statistical agencies, and a favorable seasonal structure continues to support the gold price.
Technical Analysis and Long-term Perspectives
From a technical perspective, the gold price is in an interesting position. Currently, the price is under slight pressure in the range of 3,370 to 3,380 US dollars, which could be attributed to profit-taking after the recent rise. Chart analysts see the next important resistance levels at 3,400 and 3,440 US dollars. Downwards, the area around 3,350 US dollars offers initial support.
Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term development of the gold price. The renowned “In Gold We Trust” Report 2025 projects a price target of 4,800 dollars by 2030. Another supporting factor is the ongoing purchasing activity of central banks. Central banks from emerging markets, in particular, have continuously increased their gold reserves in recent quarters.
Outlook and Conclusion
For the current trading week, several important economic data releases and events are scheduled that could significantly influence the gold price: On Tuesday, the ISM Services Index for the USA will be published; on Wednesday, the trade balances of the USA and China will follow; on Thursday, initial jobless claims in the USA; and on Friday, the Consumer Price Index from China. The US economic data, in particular, will be closely watched, as they could provide further indications regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy.
Given the current mix of interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing demand from central banks, gold remains an attractive investment for investors. The current week could be pivotal for the further development of the precious metal.
