The gold price is making another attempt to sustainably overcome resistance in the $4,100 per ounce range. After reaching a record high of around $4,360 last month, the market has cooled down somewhat but remains at a high level. At the same time, investment bank Standard Chartered points out that the recently increased volatility in equity and crypto markets could also become a short-term burden for the gold price.
While gold has fallen by about 6 percent from its all-time high, the correction in Bitcoin is significantly sharper. The cryptocurrency is testing support levels in the $85,000 per token range, putting it about 31 percent below its peak. However, for Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, this does not automatically mean an advantage for gold. In her latest commentary, she warns that if pressure on equity markets persists, margin calls could also affect the gold price if investors are forced to sell liquid positions to cover collateral.
Gold Price between Resistance, Fed Uncertainty, and Market Risks
The gold price continues to benefit from robust investment demand but faces headwinds from ongoing uncertainty about the future course of the US Federal Reserve. Standard Chartered expects the Federal Reserve to leave key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. Recent meeting minutes indicated a pronounced reluctance to cut rates, Cooper emphasizes. Additionally, important labor market data for November will only be released after the meeting, further limiting transparency for the central bank.
In this environment, the gold price fluctuates within a range, without a clear upward or downward breakout. On the one hand, rising real interest rates and the possibility of a longer restrictive monetary policy act as a brake on the gold price. On the other hand, geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns in the US, and broad-based investment demand support the level above $4,000. Cooper therefore sees growing downside potential for the gold price in the event of renewed financial market turmoil but simultaneously stresses that downside risks are limited by the demand base.
Gold Price and Investor Demand: ETPs, Physical Market, and New Investor Groups
According to Standard Chartered, a key driver for the gold price’s rise to new record highs in October was the strong inflow into gold-backed Exchange Traded Products. The increase in ETP holdings brought additional demand into a market already supported by other factors. While inflows have slowed down since then, physical demand has not cooled as much as might have been expected given the high prices. For the gold market and the gold price, this signals that the fundamentals remain stable.
From Cooper’s perspective, it is interesting that the structure of gold investors has also changed. After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, many established ETP investors reduced their positions and used gold more tactically. In the current phase, a different picture emerges: pension funds and other institutional investors who already hold gold further increased their allocations in the third quarter of 2025, even if total positions are still below previous peak values.
In addition, another segment is growing that could become important for the gold price. In the “Investment Advisor” category, which also includes family offices, gold allocation continues to increase. Standard Chartered estimates that many of these new investor groups have not yet invested to the extent they are aiming for in the long term. Although the resilience of these new gold investors has not yet been tested in a pronounced correction phase, anecdotal evidence suggests that the gold price could receive additional support from this area in the future.
In summary, Standard Chartered’s analysis paints a nuanced picture for the gold price. In the short term, a renewed selling wave in equity or crypto markets could exert pressure on gold via margin calls, even if the precious metal itself is not the cause of the dislocations. Medium to long term, however, the structural factors that have supported the gold price in recent quarters remain: broad and growing investor demand, gold’s role as a hedge against fiscal and geopolitical risks, and the increasing acceptance of high price levels beyond $4,000 per ounce. How the gold price ultimately develops in this tension between short-term market risks and long-term demand largely depends on whether the current consolidation is to be seen as an intermediate step in a continued upward trend or as the beginning of a deeper correction.
